---
title: "Baldrun case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Baldrun ($7.58) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.97% from 49 items with odds, observed 87.42% over 233 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baldrun
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Baldrun](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baldrun)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Baldrun

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baldrun?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baldrun?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baldrun) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baldrun?window=all)

Price · $7.58

Advertised RTP · 93.97% · EV $7.12 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.42% · 233 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 14 openings · below min

7 days · 89.50% ±23.88 216 openings

30 days · 87.42% ±22.97 233 openings

since tracking started · 87.42% ±22.97 233 openings

-0.5% 83.5% 167.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baldrun?window=24h) | 14 | 73.01% ±93.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baldrun?window=7d) | 216 | 89.50% ±23.9 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baldrun) | 233 | 87.42% ±23.0 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/baldrun?window=all) | 233 | 87.42% ±23.0 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 233 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,548 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,029 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,370 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,742 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,031 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $952 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $721 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $528 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 125,000 | $516 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $470 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71,429 | $354 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-eye-of-horus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62,500 | $330 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 35,714 | $298 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 21,739 | $229 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,061 | $135 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 5,102 | $127 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 4,348 | $119 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-well-worn) | 1 in 1,484 | $81.83 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-factory-new) | 1 in 1,302 | $77.88 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 871 | $70.10 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,577 | $68.54 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 446 | $55.22 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 355 | $48.53 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 245 | $42.47 | 2.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 173 | $35.77 | 2.9% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 150 | $29.64 | 2.8% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 110 | $27.40 | 3.5% | 4 | 2.1 | 1.88× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $22.37 | 4.3% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $21.60 | 4.2% | 1 | 3.2 | 0.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 72 | $18.16 | 3.6% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.54× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $17.91 | 4.6% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.17× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 49 | $15.46 | 4.4% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $12.66 | 5.5% | 5 | 7.2 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $11.04 | 5.7% | 2 | 8.6 | 0.23× |
| [M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $7.82 | 7.0% | 17 | 14.8 | 1.15× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $6.04 | 5.4% | 11 | 14.9 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $5.85 | 5.3% | 15 | 15.1 | 0.99× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $5.66 | 4.8% | 17 | 14.1 | 1.20× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $5.41 | 4.8% | 15 | 14.8 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $4.69 | 4.0% | 11 | 14.2 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $4.19 | 3.4% | 12 | 13.5 | 0.89× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $4.12 | 3.3% | 18 | 13.3 | 1.35× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $3.63 | 2.8% | 10 | 12.9 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.51 | 1.8% | 11 | 12.0 | 0.92× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $1.98 | 1.3% | 14 | 11.2 | 1.24× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $1.58 | 1.0% | 12 | 10.1 | 1.18× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $1.48 | 0.9% | 12 | 10.3 | 1.16× |
| [MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $1.09 | 0.6% | 9 | 9.6 | 0.94× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.97 | 0.6% | 16 | 9.6 | 1.67× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/baldrun/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=baldrun)

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $7.58 $5.85 0.77x 2026-11-10 18:37 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $7.58 $0.97 0.13x 2026-11-10 18:37 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $7.58 $1.98 0.26x 2026-11-10 18:37 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $7.58 $3.63 0.48x 2026-11-10 18:36 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $7.58 $6.04 0.80x 2026-11-10 18:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $7.58 $5.41 0.71x 2026-11-10 18:36 UTC

[M4A1-S | Basilisk (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $7.58 $7.82 1.03x 2026-11-10 18:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $7.58 $5.85 0.77x 2026-11-10 18:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $7.58 $5.85 0.77x 2026-11-10 18:36 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $7.58 $5.85 0.77x 2026-11-10 18:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $7.58 | 93.97% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.70 | 92.51% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.70 | 93.41% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed high 0.0% contraband 0.0% covert 0.6% gold 0.0% covert knife 0.0% restricted 21.2% Covert 0.0% red 0.3% mil spec 5.1% classified 24.7% Ancient 1.6% pink 7.8% #8847ff 17.2% Mythical 10.2% blue 5.8% #d32ee6 5.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.97 on average: an expected loss of $6.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt