---
title: "Beach case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Beach ($3.86) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.93% from 49 items with odds, observed 91.46% over 971 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beach
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Beach](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beach)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Beach

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beach?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beach?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beach) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beach?window=all)

Price · $3.86

Advertised RTP · 93.93% · EV $3.63 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.46% · 971 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 58.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 42 openings · below min

7 days · 91.48% ±18.46 965 openings

30 days · 91.46% ±18.40 971 openings

since tracking started · 91.46% ±18.40 971 openings

1.5% 90.8% 180.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beach?window=24h) | 42 | 90.72% ±88.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beach?window=7d) | 965 | 91.48% ±18.5 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beach) | 971 | 91.46% ±18.4 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beach?window=all) | 971 | 91.46% ±18.4 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 971 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,290 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,286 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $4,251 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,597 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,100 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,024 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,874 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,732 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,717 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,009 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Field-Tested) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $907 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $801 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $400 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $366 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $340 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Brocade Crane (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-brocade-crane-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40,000 | $123 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-well-worn) | 1 in 20,833 | $106 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Getaway Sally \| The Professionals agent · exceptional](https://gambatracker.com/items/getaway-sally-the-professionals) | 1 in 6,329 | $64.75 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) | 1 in 7,194 | $61.00 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 991 | $33.70 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 487 | $25.10 | 1.4% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 235 | $19.92 | 2.3% | 6 | 4.1 | 1.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-field-tested) | 1 in 252 | $17.38 | 1.9% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.78× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) | 1 in 134 | $13.13 | 2.7% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.51× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $12.74 | 2.7% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $12.36 | 2.7% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.65× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 93 | $11.94 | 3.6% | 12 | 10.5 | 1.15× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 86 | $9.09 | 2.9% | 11 | 11.2 | 0.98× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $7.95 | 3.4% | 16 | 15.1 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $7.50 | 3.7% | 17 | 17.3 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $7.50 | 3.5% | 13 | 16.4 | 0.79× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $6.18 | 4.2% | 19 | 24.0 | 0.79× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.57 | 4.7% | 23 | 29.6 | 0.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $5.46 | 4.7% | 19 | 30.1 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $5.42 | 4.9% | 27 | 31.6 | 0.85× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $5.22 | 4.5% | 35 | 30.1 | 1.16× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $5.05 | 5.0% | 39 | 34.9 | 1.12× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $4.81 | 4.6% | 38 | 33.3 | 1.14× |
| [SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-tiger-moth-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $4.07 | 4.1% | 30 | 35.7 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $3.94 | 5.5% | 55 | 48.7 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $3.63 | 5.2% | 44 | 50.4 | 0.87× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $3.02 | 4.5% | 55 | 52.6 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.90 | 4.5% | 60 | 54.1 | 1.11× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $2.01 | 3.1% | 70 | 55.0 | 1.27× |
| [M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poly-mag-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.87 | 1.6% | 75 | 66.5 | 1.13× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.86 | 1.7% | 60 | 68.5 | 0.88× |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.64 | 1.3% | 77 | 73.4 | 1.05× |
| [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.60 | 1.3% | 73 | 74.7 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.60 | 1.3% | 70 | 73.6 | 0.95× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/beach/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=beach)

[AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) [Представляешь?](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BB%D1%8F%D0%B5%D1%88%D1%8C%3F) $3.86 $13.13 3.40x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[G3SG1 | Black Sand (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-field-tested) [Представляешь?](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%BB%D1%8F%D0%B5%D1%88%D1%8C%3F) $3.86 $0.60 0.16x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-minimal-wear) [vspyshka sleva](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/vspyshka%20sleva) $3.86 $7.50 1.94x 2026-11-11 06:59 UTC

[Negev | dev\_texture (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-minimal-wear) [000](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/000) $3.86 $0.64 0.17x 2026-11-11 01:02 UTC

[AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-well-worn) [Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Sun) $3.86 $13.13 3.40x 2026-11-10 21:33 UTC

[AK-47 | Safety Net (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safety-net-field-tested) [Sun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Sun) $3.86 $2.90 0.75x 2026-11-10 21:33 UTC

[P250 | Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $3.86 $5.57 1.44x 2026-11-10 20:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-well-worn) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $3.86 $6.18 1.60x 2026-11-10 20:13 UTC

[Negev | dev\_texture (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-minimal-wear) [турбо воин csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B1%D0%BE%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B8%D0%BD%20csgorun) $3.86 $0.64 0.17x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-factory-new) [турбо воин csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80%D0%B1%D0%BE%20%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B8%D0%BD%20csgorun) $3.86 $2.01 0.52x 2026-11-10 18:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.86 | 93.93% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.93 | 92.25% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.93 | 92.79% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 11.8% extraordinary 0.0% gold 0.0% sunny 0.0% restricted 12.6% rare 0.0% exceptional 0.0% Ancient 0.1% red 0.2% pink 9.8% blue 11.5% #d32ee6 2.4% Mythical 13.7% #8847ff 3.7% Classified 5.0% milspec 6.8% violet 14.6% mil spec 7.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.93 on average: an expected loss of $6.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt