---
title: "Bear c case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bear c ($29.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 211.61% over 3,581 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bear-c
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Bear c](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bear-c)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Bear c

A case on CSGORUN (hype2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bear-c?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bear-c?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bear-c) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bear-c?window=all)

Price · $29.99

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $28.19 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 211.61% · 3,581 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 48.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80 openings · below min

7 days · 211.61% ±9.24 3,581 openings

30 days · 211.61% ±9.24 3,581 openings

since tracking started · 211.61% ±9.24 3,581 openings

79.0% 150.3% 221.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 98.17% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (202.37% – 220.85%, 3,581 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bear-c?window=24h) | 80 | 95.84% ±16.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bear-c?window=7d) | 3,581 | 211.61% ±9.24 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bear-c) | 3,581 | 211.61% ±9.24 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bear-c?window=all) | 3,581 | 211.61% ±9.24 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,581 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,182 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $928 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $829 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 166,667 | $741 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $531 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30,303 | $479 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12,195 | $354 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,780 | $299 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 2,994 | $232 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,261 | $173 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 629 | $162 | 0.9% | 10 | 5.7 | 1.76× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 348 | $113 | 1.2% | 7 | 10.3 | 0.68× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 218 | $92.10 | 1.5% | 16 | 16.4 | 0.98× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-night-stripe-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $86.32 | 2.1% | 28 | 24.6 | 1.14× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $71.36 | 2.7% | 38 | 37.7 | 1.01× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $60.24 | 7.7% | 94 | 129.0 | 0.73× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $51.95 | 4.3% | 84 | 83.8 | 1.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $49.43 | 4.2% | 93 | 86.4 | 1.08× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $47.55 | 4.6% | 86 | 97.1 | 0.89× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $44.49 | 4.8% | 107 | 109.7 | 0.98× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 31 | $44.45 | 5.0% | 125 | 113.8 | 1.10× |
| [P90 \| Cold Blooded (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cold-blooded-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $42.09 | 5.9% | 128 | 141.7 | 0.90× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $41.55 | 5.3% | 138 | 128.1 | 1.08× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $41.25 | 6.0% | 149 | 146.5 | 1.02× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $40.28 | 5.6% | 137 | 141.5 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $38.13 | 6.5% | 175 | 172.7 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $34.89 | 5.9% | 162 | 171.0 | 0.95× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $34.37 | 8.2% | 228 | 241.0 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $16.19 | 1.9% | 45 | 120.4 | 0.37× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $14.19 | 2.5% | 168 | 179.4 | 0.94× |
| [SSG 08 \| Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $13.12 | 2.3% | 87 | 176.5 | 0.49× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $12.80 | 2.0% | 66 | 157.1 | 0.42× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $12.64 | 2.3% | 82 | 183.7 | 0.45× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $7.95 | 1.1% | 149 | 141.8 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $7.13 | 1.0% | 143 | 137.6 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $7.07 | 1.0% | 133 | 140.8 | 0.94× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $5.00 | 0.6% | 120 | 123.1 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $4.92 | 0.6% | 125 | 117.8 | 1.06× |
| [MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $4.88 | 0.6% | 126 | 125.1 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $4.03 | 0.5% | 114 | 115.2 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/bear_c/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Ursus Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-fade-minimal-wear) [Marc Nine](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Marc%20Nine) $0.99 $286 288.8x 2026-11-05 19:05 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) [𝐩𝐥𝐮𝐱𝐮𝐫𝐲](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%90%A9%F0%9D%90%A5%F0%9D%90%AE%F0%9D%90%B1%F0%9D%90%AE%F0%9D%90%AB%F0%9D%90%B2) $0.99 $237 239.5x 2026-11-05 19:01 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $0.99 $185 187.0x 2026-11-05 21:29 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.99 $185 187.0x 2026-11-05 19:04 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.99 $185 187.0x 2026-11-05 19:04 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $0.99 $152 153.3x 2026-11-05 21:30 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $0.99 $152 153.3x 2026-11-05 19:04 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $0.99 $152 153.3x 2026-11-05 19:02 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Захар Таланцев](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%97%D0%B0%D1%85%D0%B0%D1%80%20%D0%A2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%86%D0%B5%D0%B2) $0.99 $152 153.3x 2026-11-05 19:02 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [кавун](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%B2%D1%83%D0%BD) $0.99 $152 153.3x 2026-11-05 19:01 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=bear-c)

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-minimal-wear) [Якакаши Мнурукам](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AF%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B8%20%D0%9C%D0%BD%D1%83%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B0%D0%BC) $29.99 $14.19 0.47x 2026-11-11 11:22 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) [✪ 807](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%9C%AA%20807) $29.99 $12.80 0.43x 2026-11-11 10:00 UTC

[MP9 | Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-arctic-tri-tone-factory-new) [Re5ven csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Re5ven%20csgorun) $29.99 $4.88 0.16x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-minimal-wear) [Re5ven csgorun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Re5ven%20csgorun) $29.99 $14.19 0.47x 2026-11-11 09:17 UTC

[MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) [Agent Beob](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Agent%20Beob) $29.99 $34.37 1.15x 2026-11-11 09:04 UTC

[Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-minimal-wear) [Daive csgorun lootrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Daive%20csgorun%20lootrun) $29.99 $14.19 0.47x 2026-11-11 08:31 UTC

[SSG 08 | Detour (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-field-tested) [Daive csgorun lootrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Daive%20csgorun%20lootrun) $29.99 $13.12 0.44x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC

[P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) [Daive csgorun lootrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Daive%20csgorun%20lootrun) $29.99 $12.64 0.42x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Daive csgorun lootrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Daive%20csgorun%20lootrun) $29.99 $40.28 1.34x 2026-11-11 08:29 UTC

[AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) [Daive csgorun lootrun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Daive%20csgorun%20lootrun) $29.99 $7.07 0.24x 2026-11-11 08:25 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $29.99 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 8.8% knifes 0.0% legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% sunny 0.0% rare 0.2% covert knife 7.7% gold 4.6% Immortal 2.3% classified 13.9% Covert 4.1% #ffd700 4.0% blue 4.8% mil spec 14.9% pink 7.2% uncommon 5.0% restricted 18.5% Legendary 4.0% best hit $286 (288.8x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt