---
title: "Beer case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Beer ($1.80) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.64% from 42 items with odds, observed 93.04% over 5,248 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beer
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:34Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Beer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beer)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Beer

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beer?window=all)

Price · $1.80

Advertised RTP · 93.64% · EV $1.69 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.04% · 5,248 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 88.35% ±11.12 616 openings

7 days · 93.10% ±3.83 5,185 openings

30 days · 93.04% ±3.81 5,248 openings

since tracking started · 93.04% ±3.81 5,248 openings

76.5% 88.3% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beer?window=24h) | 616 | 88.35% ±11.1 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beer?window=7d) | 5,185 | 93.10% ±3.83 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beer) | 5,248 | 93.04% ±3.81 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/beer?window=all) | 5,248 | 93.04% ±3.81 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,248 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $928 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $776 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $470 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $459 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $400 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $265 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-field-tested) | 1 in 200,000 | $165 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $120 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45,455 | $71.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 43,478 | $69.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Legion of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-legion-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $35.43 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,924 | $24.78 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) | 1 in 1,828 | $23.07 | 0.7% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Attack Vector (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-attack-vector-factory-new) | 1 in 518 | $13.10 | 1.5% | 11 | 10.1 | 1.08× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 525 | $13.00 | 1.5% | 14 | 10.0 | 1.40× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-field-tested) | 1 in 518 | $12.49 | 1.4% | 9 | 10.1 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 293 | $10.38 | 2.1% | 22 | 17.9 | 1.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $8.03 | 2.5% | 26 | 27.8 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $7.73 | 4.0% | 52 | 46.2 | 1.12× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $7.29 | 2.4% | 26 | 28.9 | 0.90× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $6.05 | 3.2% | 43 | 47.2 | 0.91× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 103 | $5.78 | 3.3% | 53 | 50.7 | 1.04× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $4.84 | 4.2% | 83 | 75.9 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $4.75 | 3.9% | 67 | 71.8 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $4.38 | 3.6% | 61 | 72.3 | 0.84× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $4.23 | 4.5% | 79 | 94.1 | 0.84× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 37 | $3.23 | 5.2% | 139 | 143.2 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $2.02 | 5.6% | 229 | 246.3 | 0.93× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $1.94 | 6.0% | 289 | 272.0 | 1.06× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.90 | 6.8% | 332 | 318.0 | 1.04× |
| [MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $1.31 | 4.7% | 314 | 319.3 | 0.98× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-angel-eyes-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $1.30 | 4.7% | 326 | 318.9 | 1.02× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rifles](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-powercore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $1.20 | 4.3% | 313 | 319.8 | 0.98× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.13 | 4.0% | 336 | 317.0 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.12 | 4.0% | 294 | 315.6 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.08 | 3.9% | 632 | 316.8 | 1.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $1.08 | 3.9% | 632 | 316.8 | 1.99× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.87 | 3.1% | 305 | 313.8 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $0.46 | 1.6% | 330 | 301.4 | 1.09× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $0.33 | 1.1% | 320 | 299.1 | 1.07× |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $0.16 | 0.5% | 282 | 283.7 | 0.99× |
| [PP-Bizon \| RMX (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.12 | 0.4% | 256 | 277.2 | 0.92× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/beer/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=beer)

[Five-SeveN | Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $1.80 $0.33 0.18x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $1.80 $0.33 0.18x 2026-11-10 22:31 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $1.80 $1.90 1.06x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $1.80 $0.46 0.26x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $1.80 $1.08 0.60x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $1.80 $0.33 0.18x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC

[SG 553 | Phantom (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $1.80 $1.13 0.63x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC

[P2000 | Pulse (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $1.80 $1.94 1.08x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC

[PP-Bizon | RMX (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-rmx-field-tested) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $1.80 $0.12 0.07x 2026-11-10 22:30 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Capillary (Well-Worn) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-capillary-well-worn) [Jordan 23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Jordan%2023) $1.80 $0.33 0.18x 2026-11-10 22:29 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.80 | 93.64% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.78 | 94.69% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.78 | 94.66% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% legendary 0.0% epic 0.0% restricted 12.4% Immortal 0.0% gold 0.0% rare 0.0% Ancient 0.0% uncommon 1.1% classified 6.9% Mythical 12.6% pink 6.4% Legendary 2.7% blue 16.5% violet 12.1% Rifles 6.1% Rare 12.1% milspec 11.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.64 on average: an expected loss of $6.36 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt