---
title: "Birthdaycake case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Birthdaycake ($10.16) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.95% from 42 items with odds, observed 92.82% over 280 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/birthdaycake
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Birthdaycake](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/birthdaycake)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Birthdaycake

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/birthdaycake?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/birthdaycake?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/birthdaycake) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/birthdaycake?window=all)

Price · $10.16

Advertised RTP · 93.95% · EV $9.55 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.82% · 280 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 15 openings · below min

7 days · 97 openings · below min

30 days · 92.82% ±46.47 280 openings

since tracking started · 92.82% ±46.47 280 openings

-0.5% 152.5% 305.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/birthdaycake?window=24h) | 15 | 103.79% ±201.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/birthdaycake?window=7d) | 97 | 78.42% ±79.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/birthdaycake) | 280 | 92.82% ±46.5 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/birthdaycake?window=all) | 280 | 92.82% ±46.5 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 280 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $35.7K | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,857 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,653 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,283 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $5,286 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,132 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,798 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,732 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,485 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife) | 1 in 333,333 | $1,214 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $911 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $776 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $582 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Cloud Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-cloud-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 52,632 | $470 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-slingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 26,316 | $330 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-well-worn) | 1 in 12,346 | $251 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,878 | $184 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,031 | $94.89 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 554 | $76.11 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 283 | $58.42 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 185 | $48.30 | 2.7% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.98× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83 | $32.30 | 4.1% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-battle-scarred) | 1 in 77 | $30.11 | 4.1% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.82× |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $29.68 | 4.4% | 7 | 4.0 | 1.77× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $29.28 | 3.9% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $27.40 | 4.5% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 63 | $27.38 | 4.5% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Splash Jam (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-splash-jam-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $26.09 | 6.2% | 12 | 6.4 | 1.89× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $21.93 | 5.5% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $21.54 | 4.9% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $11.75 | 7.3% | 19 | 16.5 | 1.15× |
| [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $8.73 | 6.9% | 18 | 21.0 | 0.86× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $6.88 | 5.3% | 11 | 20.6 | 0.53× |
| [FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $6.38 | 4.9% | 18 | 20.4 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $6.29 | 4.8% | 30 | 20.3 | 1.48× |
| [AWP \| Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $5.39 | 4.1% | 17 | 20.1 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $5.16 | 3.9% | 22 | 20.1 | 1.09× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $4.75 | 3.5% | 28 | 19.8 | 1.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $4.46 | 3.3% | 19 | 19.7 | 0.96× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $3.23 | 2.3% | 20 | 19.1 | 1.05× |
| [SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $2.51 | 1.8% | 14 | 18.9 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1.14 | 0.7% | 19 | 17.5 | 1.08× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/birthdaycake/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=birthdaycake)

[FAMAS | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-valence-minimal-wear) [User764](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/User764) $10.16 $6.38 0.63x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) [max2011tishakov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/max2011tishakov) $10.16 $5.16 0.51x 2026-11-11 08:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) [ytkaaa!? @bandit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ytkaaa!%3F%20%40bandit) $10.16 $5.16 0.51x 2026-11-11 08:21 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) [Pal1sade](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Pal1sade) $10.16 $6.29 0.62x 2026-11-11 07:42 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) [3.14ЗДАЛИЗ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/3.14%D0%97%D0%94%D0%90%D0%9B%D0%98%D0%97) $10.16 $6.29 0.62x 2026-11-10 19:30 UTC

[Glock-18 | Shinobu (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-field-tested) [Teni](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Teni) $10.16 $4.75 0.47x 2026-11-10 17:20 UTC

[AWP | Phobos (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-phobos-factory-new) [Volchonok052](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Volchonok052) $10.16 $5.39 0.53x 2026-11-10 17:15 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [Gon Furīkusu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Gon%20Fur%C4%ABkusu) $10.16 $58.42 5.75x 2026-11-10 16:50 UTC

[MP9 | Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) [Охотник за Пуси](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%BA%20%D0%B7%D0%B0%20%D0%9F%D1%83%D1%81%D0%B8) $10.16 $6.29 0.62x 2026-11-10 16:21 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-well-worn) [xY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/xY) $10.16 $3.23 0.32x 2026-11-10 16:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $10.16 | 93.95% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $10.18 | 93.77% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.18 | 94.60% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.1% covert 3.2% legendary 0.0% sunny 0.0% rare 0.2% #ffd700 0.4% Ancient 2.8% red 1.3% industrial 1.6% classified 20.1% pink 14.3% restricted 7.3% uncommon 7.3% Mythical 14.4% Legendary 7.1% violet 7.0% Restricted 6.7% blue 6.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.95 on average: an expected loss of $6.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt