---
title: "Black case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Black ($5.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 93.84% over 1,236 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/black
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Black](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/black)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Black

A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/black?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/black?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/black) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/black?window=all)

Price · $5.49

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $5.16 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.84% · 1,236 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 49.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 92.11% ±8.14 377 openings

7 days · 93.84% ±4.50 1,236 openings

30 days · 93.84% ±4.50 1,236 openings

since tracking started · 93.84% ±4.50 1,236 openings

83.5% 92.3% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/black?window=24h) | 377 | 92.11% ±8.14 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/black?window=7d) | 1,236 | 93.84% ±4.50 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/black) | 1,236 | 93.84% ±4.50 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/black?window=all) | 1,236 | 93.84% ±4.50 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,353 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $338 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Stained (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-stained-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $217 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $174 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $144 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 23,256 | $97.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,901 | $89.56 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 4,630 | $65.27 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P90 \| Shallow Grave (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-shallow-grave-factory-new) | 1 in 2,188 | $50.89 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-factory-new) | 1 in 1,010 | $38.61 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 543 | $30.57 | 1.1% | 4 | 2.5 | 1.61× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 271 | $27.12 | 1.9% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 195 | $21.52 | 2.1% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $17.64 | 2.8% | 20 | 11.1 | 1.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $14.88 | 3.2% | 17 | 14.9 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $10.98 | 8.6% | 56 | 54.4 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-factory-new) | 1 in 47 | $10.03 | 4.2% | 28 | 29.1 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $9.09 | 5.0% | 42 | 38.3 | 1.10× |
| [Glock-18 \| Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $7.73 | 5.5% | 47 | 50.0 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $7.41 | 7.2% | 61 | 67.8 | 0.90× |
| [Nova \| Gila (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-gila-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $6.82 | 7.9% | 75 | 81.0 | 0.93× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $6.20 | 8.5% | 101 | 96.2 | 1.05× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $5.85 | 8.9% | 92 | 106.7 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $5.66 | 9.2% | 123 | 113.6 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.76 | 2.8% | 40 | 41.5 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4.20 | 2.5% | 40 | 41.5 | 0.96× |
| [SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.67 | 2.2% | 47 | 41.5 | 1.13× |
| [P250 \| Cyber Shell (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cyber-shell-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.47 | 2.1% | 40 | 41.5 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.07 | 1.8% | 37 | 41.5 | 0.89× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $2.69 | 1.6% | 39 | 41.5 | 0.94× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.50 | 1.5% | 44 | 41.5 | 1.06× |
| [SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-phantom-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.08 | 1.2% | 45 | 41.5 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.94 | 1.2% | 37 | 41.5 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.76 | 1.0% | 40 | 41.5 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.37 | 0.8% | 46 | 41.5 | 1.11× |
| [MAC-10 \| Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-pipe-down-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.24 | 0.7% | 31 | 41.5 | 0.75× |
| [Nova \| Yorkshire (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-yorkshire-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $1.23 | 0.7% | 41 | 41.5 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $1.04 | 0.6% | 48 | 41.5 | 1.16× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $0.90 | 0.5% | 41 | 41.5 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $0.85 | 0.5% | 40 | 41.5 | 0.96× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Shred (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-shred-factory-new) | 1 in 162 | $0.76 | 0.1% | 13 | 8.4 | 1.55× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/black/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=black)

[SSG 08 | Rapid Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-rapid-transit-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.49 $3.67 0.67x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.49 $5.85 1.07x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.49 $2.50 0.46x 2026-11-11 13:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.49 $7.41 1.35x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC

[AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.49 $5.85 1.07x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[M4A1-S | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nitro-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.49 $1.04 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.49 $14.88 2.71x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) [Пицот](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%B8%D1%86%D0%BE%D1%82) $5.49 $1.76 0.32x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-green-line-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.49 $7.73 1.41x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $5.49 $0.85 0.15x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.49 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert knife 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.0% Legendary 0.0% mil spec 3.8% restricted 27.6% classified 4.4% pink 0.5% Mythical 14.3% blue 10.9% uncommon 3.7% violet 10.2% #8847ff 3.1% milspec 3.1% Mil Spec Grade 3.1% Rare 3.1% Restricted 3.1% #4b69ff 6.1% gray 3.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt