---
title: "Blackfriday case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Blackfriday ($7.83) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.93% from 49 items with odds, observed 88.25% over 100 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blackfriday
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:10Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Blackfriday](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blackfriday)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Blackfriday

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blackfriday?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blackfriday?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blackfriday) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blackfriday?window=all)

Price · $7.83

Advertised RTP · 93.93% · EV $7.35 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.25% · 100 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 18.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 31 openings · below min

30 days · 88.25% ±23.59 100 openings

since tracking started · 88.25% ±23.59 100 openings

-0.5% 91.3% 183.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blackfriday?window=24h) | 6 | 87.06% ±95.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blackfriday?window=7d) | 31 | 100.95% ±41.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blackfriday) | 100 | 88.25% ±23.6 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blackfriday?window=all) | 100 | 88.25% ±23.6 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 100 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,122 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,331 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $911 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $726 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $614 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $332 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 15,625 | $183 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,299 | $131 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,739 | $120 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 5,495 | $104 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 1,548 | $79.44 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,742 | $78.66 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 533 | $55.22 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 618 | $54.98 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 486 | $49.57 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-field-tested) | 1 in 268 | $41.89 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-battle-scarred) | 1 in 344 | $41.84 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 223 | $38.41 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 214 | $35.03 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $28.30 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 180 | $28.08 | 2.1% | 3 | 0.6 | — |
| [Nova \| Blaze Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-blaze-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 113 | $26.50 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [P90 \| Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $24.90 | 3.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Spitfire (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-spitfire-well-worn) | 1 in 150 | $19.84 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-red-rock-well-worn) | 1 in 75 | $19.32 | 3.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.49× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 64 | $17.71 | 3.8% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $14.38 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $12.62 | 5.0% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $11.94 | 8.6% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Crimson Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-crimson-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $10.88 | 3.3% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [P250 \| Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $8.18 | 5.9% | 11 | 5.3 | 2.08× |
| [Galil AR \| Shattered (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $8.18 | 4.3% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.04× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $6.77 | 4.9% | 5 | 5.3 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $6.53 | 4.5% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $6.43 | 4.5% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $4.70 | 3.1% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $4.69 | 3.1% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.82× |
| [SSG 08 \| Red Stone (Well-Worn) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $4.66 | 3.1% | 6 | 4.9 | 1.23× |
| [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $3.44 | 2.1% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.57× |
| [Galil AR \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $3.34 | 1.9% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.40× |
| [P2000 \| Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $3.22 | 2.0% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.11× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Withered Vine (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-withered-vine-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $2.50 | 1.4% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| [Glock-18 \| Red Tire (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-red-tire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $2.48 | 1.4% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.74× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.79 | 0.9% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $1.32 | 0.6% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.14× |
| [M249 \| Predator (Well-Worn) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-predator-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $0.83 | 0.4% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× |
| [MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-black-sand-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $0.82 | 0.3% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.62× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $0.38 | 0.1% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $0.07 | 0.0% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.66× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/blackfriday/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=blackfriday)

[P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $7.83 $8.18 1.04x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-battle-scarred) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $7.83 $6.77 0.86x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-battle-scarred) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $7.83 $6.77 0.86x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[P2000 | Red FragCam (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-red-fragcam-field-tested) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $7.83 $3.22 0.41x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[Galil AR | Black Sand (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-black-sand-minimal-wear) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $7.83 $3.34 0.43x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[AK-47 | Predator (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-predator-field-tested) [ALVares](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ALVares) $7.83 $12.62 1.61x 2026-11-10 17:13 UTC

[SSG 08 | Red Stone (Well-Worn) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-red-stone-well-worn) [Evgeny Vadimovich](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Evgeny%20Vadimovich) $7.83 $4.66 0.60x 2026-11-10 13:35 UTC

[P250 | Black & Tan (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-black-and-tan-field-tested) [Евгений Сапрыкин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%95%D0%B2%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BD) $7.89 $8.18 1.04x 2026-11-05 18:06 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) [Евгений Сапрыкин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%95%D0%B2%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BD) $7.89 $6.43 0.81x 2026-11-05 14:27 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) [Евгений Сапрыкин](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%95%D0%B2%D0%B3%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%BD) $7.89 $17.71 2.24x 2026-11-05 14:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $7.83 | 93.93% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.89 | 93.21% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.89 | 93.48% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% Covert 0.0% covert 1.0% rare 0.0% classified 1.9% restricted 2.1% Rare 7.7% mil spec 30.5% Restricted 0.7% red 0.6% Mil Spec 4.7% #8847ff 5.5% industrial 2.9% #87c7ff 2.2% milspec 5.3% pink 5.3% Classified 5.1% other 4.9% Uncommon 8.3% violet 6.1% Consumer Grade 3.3% blue 1.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.93 on average: an expected loss of $6.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt