---
title: "Blue case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Blue ($14.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.00% from 40 items with odds, observed 91.08% over 125 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blue
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Blue](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blue)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Blue

A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blue?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blue?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blue) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blue?window=all)

Price · $14.99

Advertised RTP · 94.00% · EV $14.09 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.08% · 125 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 23 openings · below min

7 days · 91.08% ±14.49 125 openings

30 days · 91.08% ±14.49 125 openings

since tracking started · 91.08% ±14.49 125 openings

36.5% 71.3% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blue?window=24h) | 23 | 70.91% ±33.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blue?window=7d) | 125 | 91.08% ±14.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blue) | 125 | 91.08% ±14.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/blue?window=all) | 125 | 91.08% ±14.5 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 169 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 500,000 | $872 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $663 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $509 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 47,619 | $379 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20,833 | $297 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 10,417 | $232 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 4,739 | $172 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 2,132 | $134 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 1,098 | $104 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-factory-new) | 1 in 539 | $87.83 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 288 | $72.70 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-factory-new) | 1 in 191 | $53.92 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-factory-new) | 1 in 128 | $47.37 | 2.6% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $37.70 | 3.0% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 69 | $35.62 | 3.6% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Atheris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-atheris-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $28.59 | 13.2% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $26.66 | 5.5% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $22.98 | 6.4% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.75× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $21.13 | 7.4% | 6 | 8.3 | 0.72× |
| [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $17.99 | 7.5% | 14 | 10.0 | 1.41× |
| [P2000 \| Handgun (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-handgun-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $17.04 | 8.6% | 12 | 12.1 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $16.25 | 9.4% | 12 | 13.8 | 0.87× |
| [P2000 \| Dispatch (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $14.74 | 4.1% | 5 | 6.7 | 0.75× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $13.01 | 2.8% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.97× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $11.19 | 2.4% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $10.32 | 2.2% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $8.92 | 1.9% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.39× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $7.95 | 1.7% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.92 | 1.5% | 9 | 5.2 | 1.74× |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $6.19 | 1.3% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.57 | 1.2% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $5.46 | 1.2% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.69 | 1.0% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $4.04 | 0.9% | 4 | 5.2 | 0.77× |
| [MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $3.51 | 0.8% | 10 | 5.2 | 1.93× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $3.01 | 0.7% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $3.01 | 0.7% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.58 | 0.6% | 10 | 5.2 | 1.93× |
| [MP7 \| Just Smile (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-just-smile-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $2.38 | 0.5% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| [XM1014 \| Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.02 | 0.4% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/blue/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=blue)

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $14.99 $3.01 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

[MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $14.99 $2.58 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:42 UTC

[MP7 | Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $14.99 $11.19 0.75x 2026-11-10 18:35 UTC

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $14.99 $10.32 0.69x 2026-11-10 18:35 UTC

[MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $14.99 $3.51 0.23x 2026-11-10 18:35 UTC

[MP5-SD | Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $14.99 $3.51 0.23x 2026-11-10 18:35 UTC

[XM1014 | Solitude (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-solitude-minimal-wear) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $14.99 $2.02 0.13x 2026-11-10 18:35 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) [Фарид Сафаров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A4%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B4%20%D0%A1%D0%B0%D1%84%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $14.99 $3.01 0.20x 2026-11-10 18:08 UTC

[MP7 | Cirrus (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-minimal-wear) [Фарид Сафаров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A4%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B4%20%D0%A1%D0%B0%D1%84%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $14.99 $2.58 0.17x 2026-11-10 18:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) [Фарид Сафаров](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A4%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B4%20%D0%A1%D0%B0%D1%84%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $14.99 $7.95 0.53x 2026-11-10 18:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $14.99 | 94.00% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.1% Covert 0.0% sunny 0.0% classified 23.2% mil spec 19.4% blue 1.1% restricted 16.7% rare 2.9% pink 15.2% Mythical 6.1% Legendary 6.1% Rare 3.1% violet 3.1% #8847ff 3.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.00 on average: an expected loss of $6.00 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt