--- title: "Boreal case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Boreal ($0.44) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.76% from 30 items with odds, observed 88.51% over 710 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boreal rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Boreal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boreal) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Boreal A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boreal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boreal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boreal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boreal?window=all) Price · $0.44 Advertised RTP · 92.76% · EV $0.41 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.51% · 710 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 29 openings · below min 7 days · 88.51% ±7.46 710 openings 30 days · 88.51% ±7.46 710 openings since tracking started · 88.51% ±7.46 710 openings 30.5% 68.0% 105.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boreal?window=24h) | 29 | 68.03% ±36.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boreal?window=7d) | 710 | 88.51% ±7.46 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boreal) | 710 | 88.51% ±7.46 | −1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boreal?window=all) | 710 | 88.51% ±7.46 | −1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 861 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $30.27 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $13.66 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 2,994 | $6.60 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-factory-new) | 1 in 837 | $3.97 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× | | [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 551 | $3.55 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× | | [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-factory-new) | 1 in 361 | $3.02 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 110 | $1.78 | 4.0% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.14× | | [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $1.47 | 5.0% | 12 | 12.0 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $1.47 | 4.6% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× | | [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $1.10 | 6.5% | 14 | 20.9 | 0.67× | | [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.69 | 8.2% | 38 | 41.9 | 0.91× | | [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $0.66 | 8.9% | 51 | 47.4 | 1.07× | | [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.63 | 9.2% | 57 | 51.3 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.59 | 9.6% | 58 | 57.4 | 1.01× | | [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $0.51 | 10.3% | 64 | 71.2 | 0.90× | | [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.38 | 3.9% | 31 | 35.6 | 0.87× | | [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.35 | 3.5% | 41 | 35.6 | 1.15× | | [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.30 | 3.0% | 52 | 35.6 | 1.46× | | [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.30 | 3.0% | 42 | 35.6 | 1.18× | | [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.26 | 2.6% | 26 | 35.6 | 0.73× | | [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.17 | 1.7% | 37 | 35.6 | 1.04× | | [Tec-9 \| Garter-9 (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-garter-9-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.16 | 1.6% | 34 | 35.6 | 0.95× | | [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Factory New) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.13 | 1.3% | 26 | 35.6 | 0.73× | | [P90 \| Mustard Gas (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-mustard-gas-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.13 | 1.3% | 26 | 35.6 | 0.73× | | [Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-acid-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.13 | 1.3% | 43 | 35.6 | 1.21× | | [R8 Revolver \| Leafhopper (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-leafhopper-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $0.13 | 1.3% | 43 | 35.6 | 1.21× | | [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.11 | 1.1% | 38 | 35.6 | 1.07× | | [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.10 | 1.0% | 38 | 35.6 | 1.07× | | [XM1014 \| Copperflage (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.06 | 0.6% | 29 | 35.6 | 0.81× | | [MAC-10 \| Acid Hex (Minimal Wear) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-acid-hex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.04 | 0.4% | 38 | 35.6 | 1.07× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/boreal/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=boreal) [MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $0.44 $0.10 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:01 UTC [AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $0.44 $0.51 1.16x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [AK-47 | Wintergreen (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-field-tested) [Superb1a](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Superb1a) $0.44 $0.51 1.16x 2026-11-11 08:06 UTC [MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-factory-new) [Сладкий Бубалех\<3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A1%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%BA%D0%B8%D0%B9%20%D0%91%D1%83%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D1%85%3C3) $0.44 $0.38 0.86x 2026-11-11 07:36 UTC [R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-leafhopper-factory-new) [Superb1a](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Superb1a) $0.44 $0.13 0.30x 2026-11-10 20:58 UTC [Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-acid-dart-factory-new) [aab\_p1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/aab_p1) $0.44 $0.13 0.30x 2026-11-10 20:57 UTC [MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-factory-new) [aab\_p1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/aab_p1) $0.44 $0.38 0.86x 2026-11-10 20:57 UTC [Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) [aab\_p1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/aab_p1) $0.44 $0.69 1.57x 2026-11-10 20:57 UTC [XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-copperflage-factory-new) [aab\_p1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/aab_p1) $0.44 $0.30 0.68x 2026-11-10 20:57 UTC [MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-minimal-wear) [Артём Открывашка](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D1%80%D1%82%D1%91%D0%BC%20%D0%9E%D1%82%D0%BA%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%BA%D0%B0) $0.44 $0.17 0.39x 2026-11-10 20:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.44 | 92.76% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.44 | 94.00% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed rare 0.3% #d32ce6 0.0% #8847ff 12.5% blue 5.7% uncommon 1.3% #4b69ff 27.2% Uncommon 13.1% Rare 14.9% #5e98d9 16.6% common 8.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.76 on average: an expected loss of $7.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt