---
title: "Boros case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Boros ($26.66) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.97% from 49 items with odds, observed 41.03% over 4 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boros
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Boros](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boros)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Boros

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boros?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boros?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boros) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boros?window=all)

Price · $26.66

Advertised RTP · 93.97% · EV $25.05 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 41.03% · 4 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

30 days · 4 openings · below min

since tracking started · 4 openings · below min

-0.5% 88.5% 177.5%

**Small sample.** 4 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boros?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boros?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boros) | 4 | 41.03% ±135.7 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/boros?window=all) | 4 | 41.03% ±135.7 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $8,522 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333,333 | $4,251 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $2,493 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-well-worn) | 1 in 111,111 | $1,949 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $1,621 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 58,824 | $1,324 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 35,714 | $1,079 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32,258 | $1,036 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,628 | $784 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 5,376 | $545 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 4,695 | $505 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 4,292 | $496 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 2,915 | $411 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,222 | $354 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 2,079 | $353 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 543 | $169 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Minimal Wear) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $164 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Cologne 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-cologne-2014) | 1 in 226 | $159 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-well-worn) | 1 in 197 | $136 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $124 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 134 | $108 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $83.57 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $70.10 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $62.94 | 6.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $46.59 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $37.62 | 6.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $34.26 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $32.34 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $27.38 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $20.09 | 5.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $18.62 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [StatTrak™ P250 \| Epicenter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p250-epicenter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $16.56 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.81 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $12.20 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $10.32 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $7.81 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $7.71 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $6.91 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $6.84 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $6.53 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $4.53 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Evil Geniuses (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-evil-geniuses-holo-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 42 | $4.05 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66 | $1.86 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $1.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-crazy-8-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $1.62 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 79 | $1.24 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $1.12 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Downtown (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $0.59 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 750 | $0.05 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/boros/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=boros)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $26.66 | 93.97% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $26.60 | 94.19% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $26.60 | 95.10% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.8% extraordinary 0.5% covert knife 0.0% classified 23.6% sunny 0.0% epic 0.4% remarkable 0.4% mil spec 7.5% Mythical 8.7% restricted 14.1% pink 9.8% industrial 14.8% rare 5.7% violet 4.7% Classified 3.3% Restricted 2.3% blue 1.1% #5e98d9 0.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.97 on average: an expected loss of $6.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt