--- title: "Bravo case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bravo ($19.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.72% from 38 items with odds, observed 82.18% over 63 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bravo rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Bravo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bravo) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Bravo A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bravo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bravo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bravo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bravo?window=all) Price · $19.99 Advertised RTP · 94.72% · EV $18.93 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.18% · 63 openings, sample method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 60.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 11 openings · below min 7 days · 63 openings · below min 30 days · 63 openings · below min since tracking started · 63 openings · below min -0.5% 48.5% 97.5% **Small sample.** 63 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bravo?window=24h) | 11 | 40.98% ±48.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bravo?window=7d) | 63 | 82.18% ±14.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bravo) | 63 | 82.18% ±14.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bravo?window=all) | 63 | 82.18% ±14.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 63 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,107 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $953 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $726 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $497 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $440 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,408 | $297 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 6,993 | $192 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,205 | $167 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,435 | $142 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 649 | $107 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 407 | $95.71 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-factory-new) | 1 in 251 | $85.28 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $60.89 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 77 | $51.64 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 80 | $50.22 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $48.56 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $46.98 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.94× | | [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $43.49 | 4.1% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $37.62 | 4.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $36.34 | 5.6% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $32.27 | 5.9% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.38× | | [MAC-10 \| Graven (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $26.67 | 9.6% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.93× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $26.27 | 9.8% | 7 | 4.5 | 1.57× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $23.91 | 10.2% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.98× | | [MAC-10 \| Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $19.34 | 4.4% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $17.93 | 4.1% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [Nova \| Tempest (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $16.64 | 3.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [M4A4 \| Zirka (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $15.49 | 3.5% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [Galil AR \| Shattered (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-shattered-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $8.18 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $6.43 | 1.5% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $6.33 | 1.4% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $5.91 | 1.3% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.47× | | [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $5.83 | 1.3% | 5 | 2.7 | 1.84× | | [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $5.20 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [Nova \| Tempest (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $4.90 | 1.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $4.40 | 1.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | | [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $3.80 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [UMP-45 \| Bone Pile (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $3.70 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/bravo/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=bravo) [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-minimal-wear) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.99 $5.20 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.99 $4.40 0.22x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [Nova | Tempest (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-tempest-minimal-wear) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.99 $4.90 0.25x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-bone-pile-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.99 $3.70 0.19x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-minimal-wear) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.99 $5.83 0.29x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [G3SG1 | Demeter (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.99 $4.40 0.22x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [SG 553 | Wave Spray (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.99 $3.80 0.19x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zirka-minimal-wear) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.99 $26.27 1.31x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [MAC-10 | Graven (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-graven-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.99 $19.34 0.97x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC [Dual Berettas | Black Limba (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-field-tested) [Черкашсуке](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A7%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%B0%D1%88%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%B5) $19.99 $6.43 0.32x 2026-11-11 10:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $19.99 | 94.72% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $19.99 | 94.00% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.6% covert knife 0.8% classified 0.2% restricted 18.5% #ffd700 1.3% blue 5.5% gold 1.7% #4b69ff 6.1% mil spec 33.1% #8847ff 6.8% violet 15.7% Mil Spec 4.3% Rare 4.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.72 on average: an expected loss of $5.28 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt