---
title: "Breakout case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Breakout ($1.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.62% from 36 items with odds, observed 90.65% over 384 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/breakout
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Breakout](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/breakout)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Breakout

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/breakout?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/breakout?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/breakout) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/breakout?window=all)

Price · $1.99

Advertised RTP · 94.62% · EV $1.88 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.65% · 384 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 41.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 384 openings · below min

30 days · 384 openings · below min

since tracking started · 384 openings · below min

82.0% 90.8% 99.5%

**Small sample.** 384 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/breakout?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/breakout?window=7d) | 384 | 90.65% ±8.06 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/breakout) | 384 | 90.65% ±8.06 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/breakout?window=all) | 384 | 90.65% ±8.06 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 384 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $247 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $194 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $184 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 111,111 | $180 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 111,111 | $174 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 16,949 | $51.01 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-factory-new) | 1 in 12,821 | $43.72 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 2,020 | $23.71 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,339 | $21.13 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,195 | $20.73 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 1,176 | $20.72 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 1,221 | $20.36 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-field-tested) | 1 in 1,224 | $19.80 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-factory-new) | 1 in 113 | $8.71 | 4.1% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $6.37 | 3.4% | 6 | 3.9 | 1.56× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-factory-new) | 1 in 46 | $4.04 | 4.7% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.31× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.89 | 6.0% | 14 | 15.1 | 0.93× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.88 | 5.5% | 14 | 13.8 | 1.01× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $2.76 | 6.0% | 10 | 15.6 | 0.64× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $2.58 | 6.5% | 21 | 18.1 | 1.16× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $2.38 | 7.1% | 21 | 21.7 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.31 | 6.5% | 14 | 20.2 | 0.69× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.30 | 7.0% | 27 | 22.0 | 1.23× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.30 | 6.6% | 18 | 20.6 | 0.87× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.29 | 6.4% | 20 | 20.1 | 1.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $2.29 | 6.3% | 19 | 19.9 | 0.95× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $2.28 | 6.5% | 22 | 20.5 | 1.07× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.97 | 2.8% | 23 | 20.9 | 1.10× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $0.90 | 2.7% | 21 | 21.6 | 0.97× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $0.49 | 1.2% | 19 | 17.6 | 1.08× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.43 | 1.0% | 15 | 17.2 | 0.87× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $0.41 | 1.0% | 15 | 16.9 | 0.89× |
| [P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ivory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.38 | 0.9% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× |
| [MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.35 | 0.8% | 18 | 16.4 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Minimal Wear) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-labyrinth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.33 | 0.7% | 20 | 16.0 | 1.25× |
| [Negev \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $0.31 | 0.7% | 16 | 15.8 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/breakout/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=breakout)

[PP-Bizon | Osiris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-factory-new) [Жук Пчела](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BA%20%D0%9F%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0) $1.99 $2.88 1.45x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC

[P250 | Supernova (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-field-tested) [Жук Пчела](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%96%D1%83%D0%BA%20%D0%9F%D1%87%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B0) $1.99 $2.28 1.15x 2026-11-10 06:29 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Osiris (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-osiris-minimal-wear) [бог додепа](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B1%D0%BE%D0%B3%20%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%B0) $1.99 $2.29 1.15x 2026-11-09 19:15 UTC

[MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-urban-hazard-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.99 $0.90 0.45x 2026-11-09 18:39 UTC

[Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.99 $2.30 1.16x 2026-11-09 18:39 UTC

[Negev | Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-desert-strike-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.99 $0.31 0.16x 2026-11-09 18:39 UTC

[Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) [EbuWashRot](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/EbuWashRot) $1.99 $2.30 1.16x 2026-11-09 18:18 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Tigris (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-factory-new) [s1lent](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/s1lent) $1.99 $6.37 3.20x 2026-11-08 11:49 UTC

[Nova | Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $1.99 $2.30 1.16x 2026-11-08 10:14 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-field-tested) [BeαR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Be%CE%B1R) $1.99 $0.49 0.25x 2026-11-07 22:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.99 | 94.62% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.99 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 4.2% covert 0.0% classified 0.5% Rare 18.0% restricted 25.9% mil spec 17.9% Mythical 18.6% violet 5.2% #8847ff 5.3% Mil Spec 4.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.62 on average: an expected loss of $5.38 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt