---
title: "Brelki case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Brelki ($0.26) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.35% from 33 items with odds, observed 92.36% over 371 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brelki
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Brelki](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brelki)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Brelki

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brelki?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brelki?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brelki) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brelki?window=all)

Price · $0.26

Advertised RTP · 93.35% · EV $0.24 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.36% · 371 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 93.74% ±17.32 121 openings

30 days · 92.36% ±10.07 371 openings

since tracking started · 92.36% ±10.07 371 openings

76.0% 93.8% 111.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brelki?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brelki?window=7d) | 121 | 93.74% ±17.3 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brelki) | 371 | 92.36% ±10.1 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brelki?window=all) | 371 | 92.36% ±10.1 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 371 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 142,857 | $20.33 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 71,429 | $11.79 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 45,455 | $9.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 31,250 | $8.26 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Hot Wurst charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-wurst) | 1 in 27,778 | $7.60 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 7,576 | $4.85 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Charm \| Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) | 1 in 1,828 | $3.00 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 1 in 1,174 | $2.43 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 1,479 | $2.27 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 1 in 307 | $1.47 | 2.0% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) | 1 in 297 | $1.36 | 1.9% | 4 | 1.3 | 3.20× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 1 in 119 | $0.97 | 3.4% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.60× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) | 1 in 100 | $0.87 | 3.6% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.62× |
| [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 1 in 60 | $0.66 | 4.6% | 4 | 6.2 | 0.64× |
| [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 66 | $0.63 | 3.9% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× |
| [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 52 | $0.58 | 4.6% | 4 | 7.1 | 0.56× |
| [Charm \| POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) | 1 in 40 | $0.48 | 5.0% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) | 1 in 44 | $0.48 | 4.5% | 2 | 8.5 | 0.24× |
| [Charm \| Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) | 1 in 32 | $0.43 | 5.5% | 11 | 11.5 | 0.96× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) | 1 in 17 | $0.32 | 7.7% | 21 | 21.5 | 0.98× |
| [Charm \| Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) | 1 in 20 | $0.30 | 6.1% | 15 | 18.4 | 0.82× |
| [Charm \| Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) | 1 in 15 | $0.22 | 6.0% | 34 | 24.6 | 1.38× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 16 | $0.17 | 4.5% | 27 | 23.8 | 1.14× |
| [Charm \| Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) | 1 in 16 | $0.17 | 4.5% | 21 | 23.8 | 0.88× |
| [Charm \| Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) | 1 in 15 | $0.17 | 4.6% | 29 | 24.6 | 1.18× |
| [Charm \| Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) | 1 in 15 | $0.17 | 4.7% | 22 | 25.0 | 0.88× |
| [Charm \| Whittle Knife charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-whittle-knife) | 1 in 16 | $0.15 | 3.8% | 21 | 22.9 | 0.92× |
| [Charm \| Big Kev charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-big-kev) | 1 in 16 | $0.15 | 4.0% | 20 | 23.8 | 0.84× |
| [Charm \| Pocket AWP charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pocket-awp) | 1 in 17 | $0.13 | 3.2% | 25 | 22.4 | 1.12× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Ava charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-ava) | 1 in 17 | $0.12 | 3.0% | 23 | 22.4 | 1.03× |
| [Charm \| Lil' Cap Gun charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-cap-gun) | 1 in 18 | $0.10 | 2.2% | 22 | 20.1 | 1.10× |
| [Charm \| Backsplash charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-backsplash) | 1 in 19 | $0.09 | 1.9% | 17 | 19.4 | 0.88× |
| [Charm \| Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) | 1 in 18 | $0.09 | 2.0% | 23 | 20.1 | 1.15× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/brelki/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=brelki)

[Charm | Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.26 $0.17 0.65x 2026-11-10 12:16 UTC

[Charm | Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $0.26 $0.17 0.65x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC

[Charm | Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.26 $0.17 0.65x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $0.26 $0.97 3.73x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC

[Charm | Stitch-Loaded charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-stitch-loaded) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $0.26 $0.09 0.35x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.26 $0.17 0.65x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC

[Charm | Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $0.26 $0.17 0.65x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC

[Charm | Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) [valdik\_12345](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/valdik_12345) $0.26 $0.17 0.65x 2026-11-10 12:15 UTC

[Charm | Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) [!shhh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/!shhh) $0.26 $0.30 1.15x 2026-11-10 10:07 UTC

[Charm | Lil' SAS charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sas) [kuShkHa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kuShkHa) $0.26 $0.22 0.85x 2026-11-10 09:32 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.26 | 93.35% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.25 | 97.08% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.25 | 93.48% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed Ancient 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% rare 0.0% Legendary 0.1% #8847ff 13.3% uncommon 37.9% #d32ce6 0.7% #4b69ff 18.3% Rare 29.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.35 on average: an expected loss of $6.65 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt