---
title: "Brokenfang case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Brokenfang ($11.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.70% from 38 items with odds, observed 103.93% over 108 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brokenfang
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Brokenfang](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brokenfang)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Brokenfang

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brokenfang?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brokenfang?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brokenfang) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brokenfang?window=all)

Price · $11.99

Advertised RTP · 91.70% · EV $11.00 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 103.93% · 108 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 108 openings · below min

30 days · 108 openings · below min

since tracking started · 108 openings · below min

85.5% 103.8% 122.0%

**Small sample.** 108 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brokenfang?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brokenfang?window=7d) | 108 | 103.93% ±17.5 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brokenfang) | 108 | 103.93% ±17.5 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/brokenfang?window=all) | 108 | 103.93% ±17.5 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $736 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $531 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $372 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $292 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Giraffe (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-giraffe-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $206 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 18,868 | $174 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-rezan-the-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 6,369 | $133 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 2,959 | $94.58 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,364 | $80.37 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 558 | $57.73 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 300 | $52.19 | 1.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) | 1 in 177 | $41.54 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 121 | $37.73 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $30.83 | 3.4% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 71 | $29.52 | 3.8% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.31× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $22.37 | 6.1% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.23× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $19.10 | 7.5% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.86× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $17.64 | 8.2% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.90× |
| [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $16.51 | 10.1% | 11 | 7.3 | 1.52× |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $15.93 | 9.2% | 6 | 6.8 | 0.88× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $14.38 | 10.8% | 10 | 8.9 | 1.12× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $11.07 | 3.6% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $10.84 | 3.6% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $10.33 | 3.4% | 8 | 3.9 | 2.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $9.58 | 3.2% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $9.09 | 3.0% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [P250 \| Contaminant (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $8.99 | 3.0% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $6.54 | 2.2% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $4.82 | 1.6% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Vendetta (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-vendetta-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $4.19 | 1.4% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Dezastre (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $4.00 | 1.3% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| [MP5-SD \| Condition Zero (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-condition-zero-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $3.51 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| [M249 \| Deep Relief (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-deep-relief-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $3.45 | 1.1% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [Nova \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.74 | 0.9% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.28× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $2.53 | 0.8% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× |
| [P90 \| Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-cocoa-rampage-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.37 | 0.8% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.26× |
| [G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-digital-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $2.17 | 0.7% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× |
| [M249 \| Deep Relief (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-deep-relief-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $1.51 | 0.5% | 7 | 3.9 | 1.79× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/brokenfang/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=brokenfang)

[Nova | Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $11.99 $10.33 0.86x 2026-11-09 18:58 UTC

[Nova | Clear Polymer (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-clear-polymer-field-tested) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $2.74 0.23x 2026-11-09 14:51 UTC

[P250 | Contaminant (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $8.99 0.75x 2026-11-09 14:51 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $9.09 0.76x 2026-11-09 14:51 UTC

[P250 | Contaminant (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contaminant-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $8.99 0.75x 2026-11-09 14:50 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $19.10 1.59x 2026-11-09 14:50 UTC

[AWP | Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exoskeleton-minimal-wear) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $11.07 0.92x 2026-11-09 14:50 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $17.64 1.47x 2026-11-09 14:50 UTC

[UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-factory-new) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $14.38 1.20x 2026-11-09 14:49 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Dezastre (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-dezastre-minimal-wear) [SUBZERO02](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SUBZERO02) $11.99 $10.84 0.90x 2026-11-09 14:49 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $11.99 | 91.70% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $11.99 | 94.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 3.6% extraordinary 0.7% covert 0.3% legendary 0.0% classified 7.2% Ancient 0.8% Legendary 3.0% restricted 12.4% Mythical 10.3% #8847ff 21.8% violet 14.5% blue 7.2% Mil Spec Grade 3.6% Mil Spec 3.6% Rare 10.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.70 on average: an expected loss of $8.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt