---
title: "Bum case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Bum ($2.69) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.70% from 42 items with odds, observed 98.33% over 3,101 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bum
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Bum](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bum)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Bum

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bum?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bum?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bum) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bum?window=all)

Price · $2.69

Advertised RTP · 93.70% · EV $2.52 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 98.33% · 3,101 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.70% ±7.98 776 openings

7 days · 98.29% ±4.04 3,035 openings

30 days · 98.33% ±3.99 3,101 openings

since tracking started · 98.33% ±3.99 3,101 openings

86.0% 94.8% 103.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 93.67% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (94.33% – 102.32%, 3,101 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bum?window=24h) | 776 | 94.70% ±7.98 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bum?window=7d) | 3,035 | 98.29% ±4.04 | +2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bum) | 3,101 | 98.33% ±3.99 | +2.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/bum?window=all) | 3,101 | 98.33% ±3.99 | +2.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,101 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $290 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $279 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $268 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $185 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 83,333 | $157 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 90,909 | $155 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Coalition (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-coalition-well-worn) | 1 in 90,909 | $141 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 34,483 | $90.94 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16,667 | $63.81 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 5,917 | $46.46 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 4,739 | $42.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,874 | $33.81 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.93× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 1,751 | $27.92 | 0.6% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Corticera (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-field-tested) | 1 in 772 | $20.19 | 1.0% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 599 | $17.79 | 1.2% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-mecha-industries-field-tested) | 1 in 231 | $13.73 | 2.4% | 13 | 13.4 | 0.97× |
| [MP9 \| Airlock (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-battle-scarred) | 1 in 203 | $11.35 | 2.2% | 19 | 15.3 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $8.58 | 2.6% | 18 | 23.8 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $6.60 | 3.0% | 37 | 36.0 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 87 | $6.59 | 3.0% | 45 | 35.8 | 1.26× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $6.29 | 3.6% | 49 | 44.4 | 1.10× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $5.44 | 3.6% | 53 | 51.8 | 1.02× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $5.08 | 4.1% | 62 | 62.6 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-well-worn) | 1 in 52 | $4.99 | 3.8% | 66 | 59.9 | 1.10× |
| [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $4.72 | 4.3% | 71 | 71.3 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $4.69 | 3.7% | 68 | 62.4 | 1.09× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-battle-scarred) | 1 in 72 | $4.59 | 2.5% | 45 | 43.0 | 1.05× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $4.23 | 5.0% | 105 | 92.2 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $4.04 | 5.1% | 92 | 98.2 | 0.94× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $3.88 | 4.4% | 99 | 89.6 | 1.10× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.77 | 5.2% | 113 | 108.7 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $3.65 | 4.5% | 111 | 95.7 | 1.16× |
| [SG 553 \| Integrale (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $3.54 | 4.4% | 108 | 98.2 | 1.10× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $3.23 | 4.3% | 110 | 103.4 | 1.06× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $2.98 | 5.2% | 135 | 136.0 | 0.99× |
| [SSG 08 \| Parallax (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-parallax-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $2.19 | 4.9% | 163 | 176.3 | 0.92× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $1.35 | 3.5% | 174 | 201.7 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.02 | 2.8% | 197 | 217.2 | 0.91× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $0.69 | 2.3% | 266 | 262.3 | 1.01× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.49 | 1.8% | 280 | 291.4 | 0.96× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.45 | 1.6% | 289 | 285.3 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-well-worn) | 10.0% | $0.32 | 1.3% | 299 | 311.3 | 0.96× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/bum/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Freehand (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-freehand-minimal-wear) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $2.69 $185 68.75x 2026-11-08 12:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=bum)

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $2.69 $0.49 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $2.69 $0.32 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-bioleak-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $2.69 $1.02 0.38x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $2.69 $0.49 0.18x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[P250 | Epicenter (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $2.69 $4.99 1.86x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $2.69 $2.98 1.11x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[P90 | Randy Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $2.69 $0.69 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[Zeus x27 | Tosai (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $2.69 $0.45 0.17x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

[P90 | Randy Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $2.69 $0.69 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $2.69 $3.65 1.36x 2026-11-11 13:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $2.69 | 93.70% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $2.72 | 92.67% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $2.72 | 93.97% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% epic 0.0% gold 0.0% red 0.1% #ffd700 0.0% Immortal 0.0% #d32ce6 1.3% rare 0.2% #d32ee6 0.9% classified 8.9% pink 23.3% uncommon 1.4% Legendary 2.3% Mythical 2.0% violet 18.1% blueLight 6.5% Mil Spec 7.0% restricted 17.9% blue 10.0% best hit $185 (68.75x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.70 on average: an expected loss of $6.30 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt