---
title: "Buster case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Buster ($18.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.61% from 42 items with odds, observed 81.15% over 151 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/buster
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Buster](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/buster)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Buster

A case on CSGORUN (media), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/buster?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/buster?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/buster) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/buster?window=all)

Price · $18.99

Advertised RTP · 92.61% · EV $17.59 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.15% · 151 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 1 openings · below min

7 days · 79.04% ±18.86 106 openings

30 days · 81.15% ±15.81 151 openings

since tracking started · 81.15% ±15.81 151 openings

-0.5% 115.0% 230.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/buster?window=24h) | 1 | 35.76% ±194.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/buster?window=7d) | 106 | 79.04% ±18.9 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/buster) | 151 | 81.15% ±15.8 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/buster?window=all) | 151 | 81.15% ±15.8 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 151 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,212 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $798 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $627 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 32,258 | $411 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 18,519 | $343 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,988 | $251 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,098 | $230 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,211 | $144 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 694 | $115 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-field-tested) | 1 in 496 | $110 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 499 | $105 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 243 | $82.44 | 1.9% | 2 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 188 | $71.38 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $63.55 | 2.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 135 | $61.02 | 2.6% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $58.42 | 2.7% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 138 | $57.80 | 2.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 105 | $56.96 | 3.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $48.53 | 3.7% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.48× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $48.30 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $45.93 | 4.1% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.85× |
| [P250 \| Digital Architect (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-digital-architect-factory-new) | 1 in 53 | $39.59 | 4.2% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $35.02 | 4.8% | 1 | 3.7 | 0.27× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $33.93 | 5.4% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.94× |
| [AWP \| Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $26.40 | 7.1% | 9 | 7.2 | 1.25× |
| [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $23.84 | 7.3% | 6 | 8.2 | 0.74× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $23.46 | 6.3% | 8 | 7.1 | 1.13× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $19.81 | 9.4% | 12 | 12.7 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $14.24 | 3.5% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| [SG 553 \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $12.01 | 2.9% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× |
| [UMP-45 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $9.46 | 2.3% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.24× |
| [MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $7.56 | 1.8% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $6.79 | 1.7% | 9 | 6.5 | 1.39× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $6.70 | 1.6% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.08× |
| [MAC-10 \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $6.39 | 1.6% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $6.37 | 1.5% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× |
| [MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-neon-ply-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $5.01 | 1.2% | 12 | 6.5 | 1.86× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $3.75 | 0.9% | 9 | 6.5 | 1.39× |
| [MP9 \| Music Box (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-music-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.96 | 0.7% | 8 | 6.5 | 1.24× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.79 | 0.7% | 4 | 6.5 | 0.62× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $2.66 | 0.6% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× |
| [G3SG1 \| Digital Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-digital-mesh-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $2.17 | 0.5% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.93× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/buster/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=buster)

[AK-47 | Baroque Purple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-minimal-wear) [SYBIROOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SYBIROOS) $18.99 $6.79 0.36x 2026-11-10 20:53 UTC

[AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $18.99 $23.84 1.26x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $18.99 $23.46 1.24x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $18.99 $3.75 0.20x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $18.99 $23.84 1.26x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $18.99 $19.81 1.04x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[AWP | Electric Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $18.99 $26.40 1.39x 2026-11-10 12:03 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $18.99 $82.44 4.34x 2026-11-10 12:02 UTC

[MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-disco-tech-minimal-wear) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $18.99 $7.56 0.40x 2026-11-10 12:02 UTC

[G3SG1 | Digital Mesh (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-digital-mesh-factory-new) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $18.99 $2.17 0.11x 2026-11-10 12:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $18.99 | 92.61% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $18.99 | 92.96% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.3% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 20.5% gold 1.2% rare 0.9% red 1.5% sunny 0.5% #ffd700 0.8% Ancient 2.8% classified 21.7% #d32ce6 4.3% Rare 8.6% uncommon 4.3% industrial 4.3% mil spec 8.6% Legendary 4.3% #4b69ff 4.3% Mythical 4.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.61 on average: an expected loss of $7.39 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt