--- title: "Butterfly case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Butterfly ($1,129.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 97.72% from 30 items with odds, observed 145.77% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/butterfly rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Butterfly](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/butterfly) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Butterfly A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/butterfly?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/butterfly?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/butterfly) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/butterfly?window=all) Price · $1,129.99 Advertised RTP · 97.72% · EV $1,104.19 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 145.77% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 32.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 53.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 16 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min 97.0% 158.0% 219.0% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/butterfly?window=24h) | 8 | 170.44% ±48.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/butterfly?window=7d) | 16 | 145.77% ±34.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/butterfly) | 16 | 145.77% ±34.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/butterfly?window=all) | 16 | 145.77% ±34.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 24 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 4,405 | $11.5K | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,546 | $11.3K | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,167 | $7,653 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 787 | $7,283 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $4,890 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 265 | $4,349 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 117 | $3,591 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $2,943 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62 | $2,561 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $2,208 | 4.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $1,874 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1,635 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1,631 | 8.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $1,485 | 11.0% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $1,452 | 7.2% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.52× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $1,394 | 8.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.24× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $1,286 | 8.4% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $1,034 | 3.9% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $877 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $703 | 2.6% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $645 | 2.4% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $532 | 2.0% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $483 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $477 | 1.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $473 | 1.8% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $457 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $449 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $449 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $444 | 1.7% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $435 | 1.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/butterfly/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $7,283 6.45x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $3,591 3.18x 2026-11-07 19:05 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $2,208 1.95x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $1,631 1.44x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $1,485 1.31x 2026-11-10 17:28 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $1,452 1.28x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1,130 $1,442 1.28x 2026-11-05 19:06 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $1,394 1.23x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $1,394 1.23x 2026-11-07 19:08 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $1,286 1.14x 2026-11-07 19:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=butterfly) [★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $449 0.40x 2026-11-10 17:35 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $1,394 1.23x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $2,208 1.95x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $7,283 6.45x 2026-11-10 17:31 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-urban-masked-field-tested) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $473 0.42x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $1,631 1.44x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $483 0.43x 2026-11-10 17:29 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $1,485 1.31x 2026-11-10 17:28 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-forest-ddpat-field-tested) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $449 0.40x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) [Магомедрасул Газимагомедов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%83%D0%BB%20%D0%93%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2) $1,130 $1,034 0.92x 2026-11-07 19:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1,130 | 97.72% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1,130 | 94.00% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 58.8% knifes 0.3% Covert 1.1% epic 5.4% gold 34.4% best hit $7,283 (6.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 97.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.72 on average: an expected loss of $2.28 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt