---
title: "Cache case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cache ($10.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.64% from 32 items with odds, observed 99.62% over 133 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cache
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Cache](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cache)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Cache

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cache?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cache?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cache) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cache?window=all)

Price · $10.99

Advertised RTP · 91.64% · EV $10.07 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 99.62% · 133 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 48.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 9 openings · below min

7 days · 133 openings · below min

30 days · 133 openings · below min

since tracking started · 133 openings · below min

50.5% 96.8% 143.0%

**Small sample.** 133 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cache?window=24h) | 9 | 96.83% ±45.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cache?window=7d) | 133 | 99.62% ±12.6 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cache) | 133 | 99.62% ±12.6 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cache?window=all) | 133 | 99.62% ±12.6 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 133 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-factory-new) | 1 in 11,236 | $160 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 7,576 | $125 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 366 | $51.26 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 1 in 370 | $48.69 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-factory-new) | 1 in 163 | $36.31 | 2.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 159 | $35.14 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $26.38 | 3.3% | 0 | 1.7 | 0.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $22.09 | 3.6% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $21.91 | 3.8% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $18.87 | 4.5% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× |
| [MAC-10 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $18.30 | 6.4% | 7 | 4.7 | 1.50× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 31 | $17.14 | 5.6% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.61× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $15.84 | 6.5% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.72× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $14.19 | 6.6% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.80× |
| [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $14.10 | 6.5% | 9 | 6.2 | 1.46× |
| [MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-setting-sun-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $13.36 | 7.3% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.69× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $12.06 | 6.0% | 8 | 6.6 | 1.20× |
| [Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $11.28 | 9.2% | 14 | 11.0 | 1.28× |
| [XM1014 \| Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $11.02 | 4.1% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.21× |
| [FAMAS \| Styx (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-styx-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $8.88 | 3.3% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hot Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hot-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $7.41 | 2.7% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.61× |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $5.74 | 2.1% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $4.93 | 1.8% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $4.22 | 1.6% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $3.59 | 1.3% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| [Negev \| Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $3.44 | 1.3% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $3.16 | 1.2% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.21× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $2.96 | 1.1% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.41× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $2.17 | 0.8% | 7 | 5.0 | 1.41× |
| [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.94 | 0.7% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Contamination (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.93 | 0.7% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [SG 553 \| Fallout Warning (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-fallout-warning-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $1.77 | 0.7% | 6 | 5.0 | 1.21× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/cache/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=cache)

[PP-Bizon | Chemical Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-minimal-wear) [Mama](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mama) $10.99 $3.59 0.33x 2026-11-10 18:55 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-field-tested) [Mama](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mama) $10.99 $11.02 1.00x 2026-11-10 18:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-minimal-wear) [Mama](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mama) $10.99 $17.14 1.56x 2026-11-10 18:55 UTC

[MAC-10 | Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-nuclear-garden-minimal-wear) [Mama](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mama) $10.99 $18.30 1.67x 2026-11-10 18:55 UTC

[Tec-9 | Toxic (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-toxic-field-tested) [Mama](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mama) $10.99 $11.28 1.03x 2026-11-10 18:54 UTC

[XM1014 | Bone Machine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-bone-machine-minimal-wear) [Mama](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mama) $10.99 $14.19 1.29x 2026-11-10 18:54 UTC

[Glock-18 | Reactor (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-field-tested) [Mama](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mama) $10.99 $14.10 1.28x 2026-11-10 18:54 UTC

[Negev | Nuclear Waste (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-factory-new) [Mama](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mama) $10.99 $4.22 0.38x 2026-11-10 18:54 UTC

[P250 | Contamination (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-contamination-field-tested) [Mama](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mama) $10.99 $1.93 0.18x 2026-11-10 18:54 UTC

[Negev | Nuclear Waste (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-nuclear-waste-minimal-wear) [Doza2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Doza2) $10.99 $3.44 0.31x 2026-11-09 12:38 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $10.99 | 91.64% | 32 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $10.99 | 94.00% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 1.5% mil spec 36.2% industrial 31.7% Rare 8.2% violet 3.7% Uncommon 14.9% light blue 3.7% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.64 on average: an expected loss of $8.36 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt