---
title: "Calendar case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Calendar ($0.77) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.16% from 42 items with odds, observed 90.60% over 2,130 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/calendar
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Calendar](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/calendar)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Calendar

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/calendar?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/calendar?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/calendar) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/calendar?window=all)

Price · $0.77

Advertised RTP · 93.16% · EV $0.72 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.60% · 2,130 openings, odds method

Variance · 11.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 26.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.07% ±60.77 116 openings

7 days · 90.43% ±20.29 1,056 openings

30 days · 90.60% ±14.32 2,130 openings

since tracking started · 90.60% ±14.32 2,130 openings

29.5% 91.0% 152.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/calendar?window=24h) | 116 | 91.07% ±60.8 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/calendar?window=7d) | 1,056 | 90.43% ±20.3 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/calendar) | 2,130 | 90.60% ±14.3 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/calendar?window=all) | 2,130 | 90.60% ±14.3 | −0.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,134 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,435 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,163 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,145 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $591 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $545 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $488 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $279 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Blackbook (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-blackbook-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $261 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $184 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333,333 | $123 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 200,000 | $88.90 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-emperor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111,111 | $65.69 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $54.43 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 90,909 | $50.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47,619 | $39.19 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22,727 | $23.64 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,195 | $7.95 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 743 | $6.70 | 1.3% | 1 | 2.9 | 0.35× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 384 | $5.66 | 2.1% | 3 | 5.6 | 0.54× |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 408 | $5.00 | 1.7% | 0 | 5.2 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-battle-scarred) | 1 in 225 | $4.07 | 2.5% | 9 | 9.5 | 0.95× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 109 | $3.97 | 5.1% | 16 | 19.6 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $3.13 | 3.3% | 21 | 16.1 | 1.30× |
| [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-battle-scarred) | 1 in 82 | $2.38 | 4.0% | 27 | 26.0 | 1.04× |
| [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $2.02 | 4.1% | 33 | 31.3 | 1.06× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.48 | 4.9% | 57 | 51.1 | 1.12× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.35 | 6.5% | 72 | 73.8 | 0.98× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $1.09 | 5.2% | 57 | 72.8 | 0.78× |
| [P250 \| Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.98 | 6.5% | 115 | 100.8 | 1.14× |
| [AK-47 \| Uncharted (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-uncharted-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.85 | 8.4% | 172 | 151.8 | 1.13× |
| [AWP \| Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $0.75 | 7.8% | 171 | 159.4 | 1.07× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.71 | 7.4% | 158 | 159.4 | 0.99× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.64 | 6.7% | 156 | 160.4 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.58 | 5.7% | 155 | 151.3 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.42 | 3.8% | 138 | 137.5 | 1.00× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.33 | 2.8% | 134 | 131.0 | 1.02× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $0.30 | 2.5% | 111 | 126.9 | 0.87× |
| [Galil AR \| NV (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-nv-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $0.18 | 1.4% | 114 | 118.4 | 0.96× |
| [MP5-SD \| Picnic (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-picnic-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $0.17 | 1.2% | 107 | 112.5 | 0.95× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Earth Mandala (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-earth-mandala-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $0.17 | 1.3% | 113 | 114.1 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $0.14 | 1.0% | 108 | 107.3 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyberforce-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.07 | 0.4% | 85 | 87.5 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/calendar/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=calendar)

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-battle-scarred) [NIO\_A](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NIO_A) $0.77 $0.30 0.39x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) [itepix papi crying](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/itepix%20papi%20crying) $0.77 $1.35 1.75x 2026-11-11 14:01 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) [s1lent](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/s1lent) $0.77 $0.75 0.97x 2026-11-11 12:02 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) [VIRUS\_#Cs2❤](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/VIRUS_%23Cs2%E2%9D%A4) $0.77 $0.75 0.97x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC

[MP9 | Shredded (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-battle-scarred) [fl0wzY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/fl0wzY) $0.77 $0.14 0.18x 2026-11-11 10:38 UTC

[AWP | Acheron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-acheron-battle-scarred) [Васятка Хрюнделяторов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%BA%D0%B0%20%D0%A5%D1%80%D1%8E%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8F%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2) $0.77 $0.75 0.97x 2026-11-11 10:31 UTC

[P250 | Nevermore (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-minimal-wear) [тимур солянович](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BC%D1%83%D1%80%20%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BB%D1%8F%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87) $0.77 $0.98 1.27x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC

[Galil AR | NV (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-nv-minimal-wear) [Невесомость 😻](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%20%F0%9F%98%BB) $0.77 $0.18 0.23x 2026-11-11 08:18 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) [голова ноздри гла](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%20%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B8%20%D0%B3%D0%BB%D0%B0) $0.77 $0.58 0.75x 2026-11-10 20:41 UTC

[UMP-45 | Continuum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-battle-scarred) [Mama jama](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mama%20jama) $0.77 $0.42 0.55x 2026-11-10 20:20 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.77 | 93.16% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.76 | 94.39% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.76 | 93.69% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 6.2% covert 0.0% rare 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.0% Legendary 0.1% restricted 19.8% #d32ce6 0.4% #8847ff 7.4% pink 3.1% violet 10.9% mil spec 7.1% milspec 11.6% #4b69ff 11.5% Rare 5.9% industrial 5.5% #5e98d9 5.3% blue 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.16 on average: an expected loss of $6.84 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt