--- title: "Canals case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Canals ($68.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.31% from 30 items with odds, observed 87.01% over 34 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/canals rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Canals](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/canals) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Canals A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/canals?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/canals?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/canals) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/canals?window=all) Price · $68.99 Advertised RTP · 89.31% · EV $61.61 from 30 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.01% · 34 openings, sample method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 62.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 34 openings · below min 30 days · 34 openings · below min since tracking started · 34 openings · below min 65.0% 87.0% 109.0% **Small sample.** 34 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/canals?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/canals?window=7d) | 34 | 87.01% ±21.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/canals) | 34 | 87.01% ±21.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/canals?window=all) | 34 | 87.01% ±21.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 34 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 17,241 | $2,618 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,346 | $2,057 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-field-tested) | 1 in 5,714 | $1,742 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-factory-new) | 1 in 733 | $799 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-minimal-wear) | 1 in 593 | $675 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-field-tested) | 1 in 462 | $613 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $138 | 7.0% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.89× | | [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $126 | 7.2% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.66× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $120 | 6.9% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $119 | 6.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Red Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-red-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $104 | 6.5% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $97.82 | 6.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $94.56 | 7.8% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.15× | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $93.08 | 7.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [Nova \| Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $85.10 | 6.9% | 2 | 1.7 | 1.18× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $68.54 | 9.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Baroque Purple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-baroque-purple-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $47.77 | 3.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [P90 \| Baroque Red (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $35.28 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $31.05 | 2.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× | | [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $28.46 | 1.8% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× | | [P90 \| Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $27.38 | 1.7% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [P90 \| Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $24.90 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× | | [G3SG1 \| Violet Murano (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-violet-murano-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $22.37 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $21.99 | 1.4% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.26× | | [SSG 08 \| Orange Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $21.56 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Orange Murano (Factory New) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-orange-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $17.66 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [R8 Revolver \| Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $17.48 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× | | [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $14.40 | 0.9% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.51× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Indigo (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-indigo-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $12.56 | 0.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.75× | | [AUG \| Navy Murano (Factory New) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $8.04 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/canals/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=canals) [R8 Revolver | Canal Spray (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-canal-spray-factory-new) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $68.99 $17.48 0.25x 2026-11-08 21:01 UTC [SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $68.99 $21.99 0.32x 2026-11-08 21:01 UTC [P90 | Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $68.99 $24.90 0.36x 2026-11-08 21:01 UTC [P90 | Baroque Red (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-field-tested) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $68.99 $24.90 0.36x 2026-11-08 21:00 UTC [P90 | Baroque Red (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-baroque-red-minimal-wear) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $68.99 $27.38 0.40x 2026-11-08 21:00 UTC [Nova | Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $68.99 $85.10 1.23x 2026-11-08 21:00 UTC [MP9 | Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $68.99 $138 2.00x 2026-11-08 21:00 UTC [SSG 08 | Orange Filigree (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-orange-filigree-field-tested) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $68.99 $21.99 0.32x 2026-11-08 21:00 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Indigo (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-indigo-factory-new) [AI3DULA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AI3DULA) $68.99 $12.56 0.18x 2026-11-08 21:00 UTC [Nova | Baroque Orange (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-baroque-orange-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $68.99 $98.67 1.43x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $68.99 | 89.31% | 30 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $68.99 | 94.00% | 30 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 0.3% Classified 0.2% restricted 31.7% violet 5.0% mil spec 31.5% industrial 3.9% Mil Spec Grade 3.9% #4b69ff 3.9% Industrial Grade 3.9% consumer 7.8% Consumer Grade 3.9% #777777 3.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.31 on average: an expected loss of $10.69 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt