---
title: "Casebattle case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Casebattle ($62.97) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.99% from 42 items with odds, observed 62.39% over 6 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casebattle
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:23Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Casebattle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casebattle)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Casebattle

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casebattle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casebattle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casebattle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casebattle?window=all)

Price · $62.97

Advertised RTP · 93.99% · EV $59.19 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 62.39% · 6 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 5 openings · below min

30 days · 6 openings · below min

since tracking started · 6 openings · below min

-0.5% 97.3% 195.0%

**Small sample.** 6 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casebattle?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casebattle?window=7d) | 5 | 67.59% ±126.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casebattle) | 6 | 62.39% ±115.4 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casebattle?window=all) | 6 | 62.39% ±115.4 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $30.6K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 500,000 | $11.3K | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $6,444 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $5,910 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125,000 | $5,286 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-well-worn) | 1 in 58,824 | $3,100 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-factory-new) | 1 in 38,462 | $2,493 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 32,258 | $2,370 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-factory-new) | 1 in 22,222 | $2,068 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23,810 | $2,057 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,765 | $1,908 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 14,493 | $1,732 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 7,246 | $1,401 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 7,692 | $1,378 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 5,102 | $1,163 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,747 | $953 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Well-Worn) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-well-worn) | 1 in 1,795 | $798 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Ultra Violent (Battle-Scarred) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-ultra-violent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 739 | $627 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 732 | $567 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 579 | $545 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 521 | $507 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 180 | $329 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 158 | $287 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Hand Sweaters (Minimal Wear) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-hand-sweaters-minimal-wear) | 1 in 91 | $245 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Wave Chaser (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-wave-chaser-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $176 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $128 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $123 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $119 | 5.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Latte Rush (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-latte-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $117 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $69.71 | 9.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $66.63 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $48.53 | 6.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $47.21 | 5.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $40.70 | 5.0% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $31.43 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $27.17 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $25.10 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $23.54 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $22.98 | 2.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $13.66 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $10.81 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $10.65 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/casebattle/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=casebattle)

[Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fully-tuned-battle-scarred) [supa](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/supa) $64.20 $40.70 0.63x 2026-11-05 05:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Aphrodite (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-well-worn) [Shrekker2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Shrekker2) $64.20 $10.81 0.17x 2026-11-04 21:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | AXIA (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-factory-new) [Shrekker2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Shrekker2) $64.20 $47.21 0.74x 2026-11-04 21:55 UTC

[M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) [Shrekker2](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Shrekker2) $64.20 $48.53 0.76x 2026-11-04 21:55 UTC

[M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-factory-new) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $64.20 $69.71 1.09x 2026-11-04 15:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $62.97 | 93.99% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $64.20 | 92.19% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $64.20 | 94.27% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.7% covert 0.2% extraordinary 3.0% classified 6.9% gold 0.0% restricted 5.3% #ffd700 0.0% sunny 0.1% Covert 0.2% Immortal 1.1% epic 1.8% Legendary 13.8% industrial 8.4% red 26.1% rare 21.2% pink 6.1% #d32ce6 5.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.99 on average: an expected loss of $6.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt