---
title: "Casehardened case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Casehardened ($199.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.69% from 30 items with odds, observed 59.68% over 7 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casehardened
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Casehardened](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casehardened)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Casehardened

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casehardened?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casehardened?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casehardened) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casehardened?window=all)

Price · $199.99

Advertised RTP · 93.69% · EV $187.36 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 59.68% · 7 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 7 openings · below min

30 days · 7 openings · below min

since tracking started · 7 openings · below min

1.5% 59.7% 118.0%

**Small sample.** 7 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casehardened?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casehardened?window=7d) | 7 | 59.68% ±57.8 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casehardened) | 7 | 59.68% ±57.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/casehardened?window=all) | 7 | 59.68% ±57.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 1,631 | $1,924 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 947 | $1,386 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 323 | $1,090 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 285 | $937 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 197 | $773 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 120 | $611 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 107 | $576 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 78 | $500 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 56 | $405 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $390 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $330 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $323 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $272 | 6.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $264 | 8.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $263 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $206 | 7.1% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $199 | 8.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $172 | 3.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $123 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $123 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $110 | 2.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $95.73 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $87.98 | 2.0% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $84.13 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $83.19 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $79.68 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $55.73 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $50.74 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $31.66 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $25.94 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.5 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/casehardened/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Stiletto Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $200 $616 3.08x 2026-11-05 19:06 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=casehardened)

[★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $200 $110 0.55x 2026-11-09 08:41 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $200 $264 1.32x 2026-11-09 08:41 UTC

[MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-factory-new) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $200 $50.74 0.25x 2026-11-09 08:41 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-factory-new) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $200 $206 1.03x 2026-11-09 08:41 UTC

[MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $200 $25.94 0.13x 2026-11-09 08:41 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $200 $123 0.61x 2026-11-06 15:31 UTC

[★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $200 $55.73 0.28x 2026-11-06 15:31 UTC

[★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) [Зеленый 💚](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%97%D0%B5%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%F0%9F%92%9A) $200 $88.86 0.44x 2026-11-05 20:35 UTC

[★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $200 $171 0.86x 2026-11-05 19:06 UTC

[AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $200 $280 1.40x 2026-11-05 19:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $200 | 93.69% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $200 | 94.00% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 34.9% Immortal 2.6% covert knife 8.4% gold 27.1% classified 6.2% extraordinary 8.4% restricted 8.4% Mythical 4.2% best hit $616 (3.08x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.69 on average: an expected loss of $6.31 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt