---
title: "Catalana case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Catalana ($5.46) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.66% from 49 items with odds, observed 94.98% over 1,505 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/catalana
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:58Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Catalana](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/catalana)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Catalana

A case on CSGORUN (chickens), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/catalana?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/catalana?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/catalana) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/catalana?window=all)

Price · $5.46

Advertised RTP · 89.66% · EV $4.90 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.98% · 1,505 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.52% ±12.43 296 openings

7 days · 94.85% ±6.31 1,147 openings

30 days · 94.98% ±5.52 1,505 openings

since tracking started · 94.98% ±5.52 1,505 openings

78.5% 91.5% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/catalana?window=24h) | 296 | 91.52% ±12.4 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/catalana?window=7d) | 1,147 | 94.85% ±6.31 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/catalana) | 1,505 | 94.98% ±5.52 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/catalana?window=all) | 1,505 | 94.98% ±5.52 | +1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,505 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $848 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500,000 | $724 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $642 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $381 | 0.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 47,619 | $185 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $184 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Sunburst (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-sunburst-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16,129 | $128 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 15,873 | $125 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 6,211 | $86.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $71.01 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 1,835 | $54.37 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-factory-new) | 1 in 2,257 | $47.35 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 877 | $45.38 | 1.1% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.75× |
| [AWP \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 590 | $36.03 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.39× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 469 | $33.36 | 1.5% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.25× |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-well-worn) | 1 in 357 | $30.27 | 1.7% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-factory-new) | 1 in 318 | $26.47 | 1.7% | 8 | 4.7 | 1.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-minimal-wear) | 1 in 202 | $22.60 | 2.3% | 9 | 7.5 | 1.21× |
| [Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-mirror-mosaic-factory-new) | 1 in 230 | $21.83 | 1.9% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 160 | $17.79 | 2.3% | 14 | 9.4 | 1.49× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 122 | $15.81 | 2.6% | 8 | 12.3 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 118 | $14.48 | 2.5% | 15 | 12.7 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 53 | $11.09 | 4.3% | 28 | 28.3 | 0.99× |
| [Nova \| Antique (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-antique-factory-new) | 1 in 61 | $10.66 | 3.6% | 29 | 24.6 | 1.18× |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 62 | $10.04 | 3.3% | 14 | 24.4 | 0.57× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 70 | $9.67 | 2.8% | 22 | 21.4 | 1.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $8.84 | 4.4% | 43 | 36.8 | 1.17× |
| [AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $8.69 | 3.3% | 27 | 28.0 | 0.96× |
| [AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $7.18 | 3.5% | 46 | 36.4 | 1.26× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 37 | $6.92 | 3.8% | 31 | 40.3 | 0.77× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $6.80 | 4.2% | 34 | 45.3 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $6.60 | 4.2% | 45 | 46.6 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-food-chain-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $5.85 | 4.8% | 59 | 61.0 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $5.41 | 4.5% | 64 | 61.2 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $5.15 | 4.9% | 64 | 69.4 | 0.92× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $4.92 | 4.6% | 70 | 69.3 | 1.01× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $4.45 | 4.2% | 71 | 69.1 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $4.45 | 4.2% | 72 | 69.5 | 1.04× |
| [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $4.09 | 3.8% | 85 | 68.7 | 1.24× |
| [AUG \| Navy Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $3.18 | 2.9% | 66 | 68.0 | 0.97× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.78 | 2.6% | 59 | 67.8 | 0.87× |
| [Nova \| Walnut (Field-Tested) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-walnut-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.52 | 1.4% | 73 | 66.5 | 1.10× |
| [XM1014 \| Blue Tire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-blue-tire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $1.12 | 1.0% | 69 | 65.6 | 1.05× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.05 | 0.9% | 63 | 65.4 | 0.96× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.97 | 0.9% | 67 | 67.6 | 0.99× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-blue-ply-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.71 | 0.6% | 46 | 64.3 | 0.72× |
| [MAG-7 \| Navy Sheen (Field-Tested) weapon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-navy-sheen-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.14 | 0.1% | 70 | 60.1 | 1.16× |
| [MAG-7 \| Wildwood (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-wildwood-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $0.07 | 0.1% | 60 | 57.7 | 1.04× |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 53 | 54.1 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/catalana/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) [Molodoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Molodoy) $5.46 $381 69.72x 2026-11-07 14:47 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=catalana)

[R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.46 $1.05 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.46 $2.78 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-blue-streak-field-tested) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.46 $2.78 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.46 $5.15 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.46 $4.92 0.90x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[AUG | Navy Murano (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-navy-murano-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.46 $3.18 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[AWP | Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.46 $5.15 0.94x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[AWP | The End (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-battle-scarred) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $5.46 $8.69 1.59x 2026-11-11 13:37 UTC

[MAG-7 | Wildwood (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-wildwood-well-worn) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $5.46 $0.07 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-battle-scarred) [KABAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/KABAN) $5.46 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $5.46 | 89.66% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $5.46 | 91.52% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert 0.3% #ffd700 0.0% epic 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% red 0.3% gold 0.1% violet 0.0% classified 28.1% pink 14.0% rare 1.1% restricted 5.4% mil spec 12.4% Classified 1.6% #d32ce6 3.1% uncommon 4.6% consumer 4.5% Common 8.8% #4b69ff 4.3% other 4.0% industrial 3.8% #b0c3d9 3.6% best hit $381 (69.72x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.66 on average: an expected loss of $10.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt