---
title: "Chainsawman case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Chainsawman ($3.46) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.80% from 42 items with odds, observed 94.81% over 214 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chainsawman
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:18Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Chainsawman](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chainsawman)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Chainsawman

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chainsawman?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chainsawman?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chainsawman) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chainsawman?window=all)

Price · $3.46

Advertised RTP · 93.80% · EV $3.25 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.81% · 214 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 96.60% ±21.12 189 openings

30 days · 94.81% ±19.81 214 openings

since tracking started · 94.81% ±19.81 214 openings

74.5% 96.5% 118.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chainsawman?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chainsawman?window=7d) | 189 | 96.60% ±21.1 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chainsawman) | 214 | 94.81% ±19.8 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chainsawman?window=all) | 214 | 94.81% ±19.8 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 214 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,122 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,054 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,086 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $722 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 500,000 | $646 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333,333 | $459 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $423 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-pillow-punchers-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $411 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $169 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 38,462 | $142 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 43,478 | $139 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Imperial Plaid (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-imperial-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19,608 | $107 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Seigaiha (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-seigaiha-well-worn) | 1 in 11,494 | $80.11 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-factory-new) | 1 in 9,901 | $72.93 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,098 | $55.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 2,193 | $46.62 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 841 | $30.41 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 341 | $21.25 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 210 | $19.03 | 2.8% | 2 | 1.0 | 1.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-control-panel-field-tested) | 1 in 266 | $18.16 | 2.1% | 3 | 0.8 | — |
| [Safecracker Voltzmann \| The Professionals agent · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/safecracker-voltzmann-the-professionals) | 1 in 150 | $15.95 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.70× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 73 | $10.12 | 4.3% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.36× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 72 | $9.68 | 4.2% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $8.03 | 4.6% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $5.16 | 5.8% | 10 | 7.9 | 1.27× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $5.09 | 6.8% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.08× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $4.90 | 7.6% | 9 | 10.7 | 0.84× |
| [Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sobeks-bite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $4.76 | 6.3% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $3.65 | 7.5% | 9 | 14.2 | 0.63× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-highwayman-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $3.50 | 6.1% | 7 | 12.1 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $2.98 | 6.3% | 16 | 14.8 | 1.08× |
| [P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $2.55 | 5.3% | 15 | 14.4 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.32 | 4.7% | 18 | 14.1 | 1.27× |
| [Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $2.06 | 4.0% | 13 | 13.5 | 0.96× |
| [M249 \| Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-emerald-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1.98 | 3.7% | 10 | 13.1 | 0.77× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.85 | 3.3% | 6 | 12.5 | 0.48× |
| [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $1.32 | 2.2% | 14 | 11.4 | 1.23× |
| [Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $0.78 | 1.0% | 17 | 9.3 | 1.82× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.71 | 0.9% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.86× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobalt-quartz-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.60 | 0.7% | 11 | 8.3 | 1.32× |
| [XM1014 \| Run Run Run (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-run-run-run-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.51 | 0.6% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.11× |
| [MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-carnivore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 28 | $0.45 | 0.5% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.66× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/chainsawman/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=chainsawman)

[Galil AR | Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) [serp](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/serp) $3.46 $2.06 0.60x 2026-11-09 14:28 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.46 $0.71 0.21x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC

[XM1014 | Black Tie (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.46 $1.32 0.38x 2026-11-09 13:02 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.46 $3.65 1.05x 2026-11-09 13:01 UTC

[P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.46 $2.55 0.74x 2026-11-09 13:01 UTC

[Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.46 $5.16 1.49x 2026-11-09 13:01 UTC

[P250 | Supernova (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-supernova-well-worn) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.46 $2.55 0.74x 2026-11-09 13:01 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.46 $2.98 0.86x 2026-11-09 13:01 UTC

[Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rocket-pop-well-worn) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.46 $0.78 0.23x 2026-11-09 13:01 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) [DoomSIayers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/DoomSIayers) $3.46 $0.71 0.21x 2026-11-09 13:01 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $3.46 | 93.80% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.55 | 91.42% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $3.55 | 93.48% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% covert knife 0.0% Immortal 0.0% rare 0.3% gold 0.0% restricted 40.3% pink 12.2% Legendary 1.4% Mythical 11.8% classified 6.6% #8847ff 5.9% violet 9.6% mil spec 4.4% milspec 7.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.80 on average: an expected loss of $6.20 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt