---
title: "Change case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Change ($0.41) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.26% from 42 items with odds, observed 92.12% over 16.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/change
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:49Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Change](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/change)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Change

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/change?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/change?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/change) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/change?window=all)

Price · $0.41

Advertised RTP · 93.26% · EV $0.38 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.12% · 16.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.12% ±7.77 1,441 openings

7 days · 92.32% ±2.34 15.9K openings

30 days · 92.12% ±2.31 16.3K openings

since tracking started · 92.12% ±2.31 16.3K openings

82.5% 91.0% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/change?window=24h) | 1,441 | 91.12% ±7.77 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/change?window=7d) | 15.9K | 92.32% ±2.34 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/change) | 16.3K | 92.12% ±2.31 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/change?window=all) | 16.3K | 92.12% ±2.31 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16.3K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333,333 | $55.20 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-well-worn) | 1 in 250,000 | $52.97 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $49.57 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200,000 | $46.75 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 166,667 | $38.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $34.66 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111,111 | $32.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 83,333 | $27.40 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-factory-new) | 1 in 37,037 | $17.23 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-field-tested) | 1 in 34,483 | $16.80 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [P250 \| Mehndi (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mehndi-field-tested) | 1 in 35,714 | $16.04 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 16,949 | $13.31 | 0.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 17,241 | $12.36 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bulldozer-well-worn) | 1 in 12,346 | $11.99 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× |
| [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 14,493 | $11.35 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,870 | $10.30 | 0.2% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,717 | $7.19 | 0.5% | 6 | 4.4 | 1.37× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 2,591 | $5.98 | 0.6% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.96× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-vogue-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,825 | $5.77 | 0.5% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,754 | $5.08 | 0.8% | 11 | 9.3 | 1.19× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,321 | $4.68 | 0.9% | 9 | 12.3 | 0.73× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 937 | $4.04 | 1.1% | 26 | 17.4 | 1.50× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-factory-new) | 1 in 406 | $3.17 | 2.0% | 33 | 40.1 | 0.82× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-well-worn) | 1 in 501 | $3.17 | 1.7% | 27 | 32.5 | 0.83× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 599 | $2.94 | 1.3% | 18 | 27.2 | 0.66× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sputnik (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sputnik-minimal-wear) | 1 in 257 | $2.32 | 2.4% | 78 | 63.3 | 1.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-well-worn) | 1 in 152 | $2.17 | 3.7% | 103 | 106.8 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 129 | $1.69 | 3.4% | 116 | 126.2 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $1.10 | 4.5% | 242 | 253.8 | 0.95× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tacticat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58 | $1.01 | 4.5% | 288 | 280.1 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-serpent-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $0.85 | 4.7% | 344 | 342.5 | 1.00× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $0.68 | 6.0% | 593 | 551.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) | 1 in 26 | $0.63 | 6.3% | 612 | 619.2 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Rose Hex (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-rose-hex-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.57 | 7.0% | 737 | 758.9 | 0.97× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.56 | 7.0% | 788 | 780.5 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-violent-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.56 | 7.0% | 732 | 779.9 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $0.32 | 7.6% | 1,467 | 1473.8 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Verdigris (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-verdigris-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.31 | 7.2% | 1,433 | 1437.9 | 1.00× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) | 10.8% | $0.17 | 4.8% | 1,725 | 1752.5 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-battle-scarred) | 12.8% | $0.15 | 5.0% | 2,101 | 2077.7 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) | 14.2% | $0.11 | 4.1% | 2,323 | 2304.7 | 1.01× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 14.8% | $0.09 | 3.5% | 2,445 | 2402.2 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/change/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=change)

[Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.41 $0.09 0.22x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.41 $0.11 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Field-Tested) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-field-tested) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.41 $0.17 0.41x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-minimal-wear) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.41 $0.11 0.27x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC

[M4A1-S | Night Terror (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-battle-scarred) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.41 $0.63 1.54x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC

[FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-minimal-wear) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.41 $0.56 1.37x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-well-worn) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $0.41 $0.32 0.78x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC

[Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) [Marc Nine](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Marc%20Nine) $0.41 $0.09 0.22x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-well-worn) [Marc Nine](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Marc%20Nine) $0.41 $0.32 0.78x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC

[Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) [Marc Nine](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Marc%20Nine) $0.41 $0.09 0.22x 2026-11-11 11:23 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.41 | 93.26% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.42 | 91.04% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.42 | 91.86% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% rare 0.0% Ancient 0.0% classified 0.1% #d32ee6 0.0% Restricted 0.0% Legendary 0.0% pink 0.4% violet 7.7% #d32ce6 0.2% blue 12.8% common 11.4% Rare 10.2% #8847ff 1.7% mil spec 13.6% #4b69ff 12.8% Uncommon 14.2% #b0c3d9 14.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.26 on average: an expected loss of $6.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt