--- title: "Charms case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Charms ($0.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.28% from 25 items with odds, observed 93.42% over 847 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/charms rendered: 2026-11-11T15:12Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Charms](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/charms) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Charms A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/charms?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/charms?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/charms) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/charms?window=all) Price · $0.99 Advertised RTP · 93.28% · EV $0.92 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.42% · 847 openings, odds method Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.18% ±16.08 197 openings 7 days · 93.42% ±7.76 847 openings 30 days · 93.42% ±7.76 847 openings since tracking started · 93.42% ±7.76 847 openings 68.5% 85.3% 102.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/charms?window=24h) | 197 | 85.18% ±16.1 | −1.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/charms?window=7d) | 847 | 93.42% ±7.76 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/charms) | 847 | 93.42% ±7.76 | +0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/charms?window=all) | 847 | 93.42% ±7.76 | +0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,115 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Charm \| Hot Howl charm · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-howl) | 1 in 3,717 | $20.33 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Charm \| Baby Karat T charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-t) | 1 in 957 | $11.79 | 1.3% | 3 | 1.2 | 2.57× | | [Charm \| Semi-Precious charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-semi-precious) | 1 in 523 | $9.37 | 1.9% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.41× | | [Charm \| Baby Karat CT charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-baby-karat-ct) | 1 in 395 | $8.26 | 2.3% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× | | [Charm \| Hot Wurst charm · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-wurst) | 1 in 334 | $7.60 | 2.5% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× | | [Charm \| Diamond Dog charm · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diamond-dog) | 1 in 88 | $4.85 | 6.0% | 14 | 12.7 | 1.10× | | [Charm \| Titeenium AWP charm · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-titeenium-awp) | 1 in 37 | $3.00 | 8.7% | 34 | 29.9 | 1.14× | | [Charm \| Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) | 1 in 30 | $2.43 | 8.8% | 39 | 37.1 | 1.05× | | [Charm \| Lil' Monster charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-monster) | 1 in 32 | $2.27 | 7.7% | 42 | 34.9 | 1.20× | | [Charm \| Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) | 1 in 13 | $1.47 | 12.1% | 87 | 84.8 | 1.03× | | [Charm \| Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) | 1 in 12 | $1.36 | 12.1% | 86 | 91.7 | 0.94× | | [Charm \| Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) | 1 in 19 | $0.97 | 5.5% | 43 | 58.1 | 0.74× | | [Charm \| Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) | 1 in 19 | $0.87 | 4.9% | 62 | 58.1 | 1.07× | | [Charm \| Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) | 1 in 19 | $0.66 | 3.7% | 52 | 58.1 | 0.89× | | [Charm \| Chicken Lil' charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-chicken-lil) | 1 in 19 | $0.63 | 3.6% | 70 | 58.1 | 1.20× | | [Charm \| That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) | 1 in 19 | $0.58 | 3.3% | 60 | 58.1 | 1.03× | | [Charm \| POP Art charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pop-art) | 1 in 19 | $0.48 | 2.7% | 53 | 58.1 | 0.91× | | [Charm \| Lil' Sandy charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-sandy) | 1 in 19 | $0.48 | 2.7% | 75 | 58.1 | 1.29× | | [Charm \| Hot Hands charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-hands) | 1 in 19 | $0.43 | 2.4% | 66 | 58.1 | 1.14× | | [Charm \| Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) | 1 in 19 | $0.32 | 1.8% | 52 | 58.1 | 0.89× | | [Charm \| Disco MAC charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-disco-mac) | 1 in 19 | $0.30 | 1.7% | 44 | 58.1 | 0.76× | | [Charm \| Lil' Crass charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-crass) | 1 in 19 | $0.17 | 1.0% | 66 | 58.2 | 1.13× | | [Charm \| Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) | 1 in 19 | $0.17 | 1.0% | 52 | 58.1 | 0.89× | | [Charm \| Baby's AK charm · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-babys-ak) | 1 in 19 | $0.17 | 1.0% | 50 | 58.1 | 0.86× | | [Charm \| Big Kev charm · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-big-kev) | 1 in 19 | $0.15 | 0.8% | 59 | 58.1 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/charms/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=charms) [Charm | Diner Dog charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-diner-dog) [ёBьIrь](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%91B%D1%8CIr%D1%8C) $0.99 $1.47 1.48x 2026-11-11 13:28 UTC [Charm | That's Bananas charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-thats-bananas) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $0.99 $0.58 0.59x 2026-11-11 12:30 UTC [Charm | Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $0.99 $0.32 0.32x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [Charm | Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $0.99 $0.87 0.88x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [Charm | Lil' Teacup charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-teacup) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $0.99 $0.97 0.98x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [Charm | Lil' Whiskers charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-whiskers) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $0.99 $0.87 0.88x 2026-11-11 12:29 UTC [Charm | Glamour Shot charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glamour-shot) [Андрей Вернер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%92%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80) $0.99 $0.66 0.67x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Charm | Lil' Squatch charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squatch) [Андрей Вернер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%92%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80) $0.99 $0.32 0.32x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Charm | Lil' Squirt charm · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-lil-squirt) [Андрей Вернер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%92%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80) $0.99 $1.36 1.37x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC [Charm | Die-cast AK charm · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-die-cast-ak) [Андрей Вернер](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%92%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%80) $0.99 $2.43 2.45x 2026-11-11 11:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.99 | 93.28% | 25 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.99 | 94.00% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Ancient 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.4% rare 1.6% Legendary 2.7% #8847ff 29.4% uncommon 39.6% #d32ce6 15.8% Rare 5.2% #4b69ff 5.2% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.28 on average: an expected loss of $6.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt