---
title: "Cheap case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Cheap ($1.68) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.88% from 42 items with odds, observed 95.71% over 7,542 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cheap
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Cheap](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cheap)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Cheap

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cheap?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cheap?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cheap) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cheap?window=all)

Price · $1.68

Advertised RTP · 93.88% · EV $1.58 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 95.71% · 7,542 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94.57% ±3.94 3,244 openings

7 days · 95.81% ±2.59 7,517 openings

30 days · 95.71% ±2.58 7,542 openings

since tracking started · 95.71% ±2.58 7,542 openings

90.0% 94.5% 99.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cheap?window=24h) | 3,244 | 94.57% ±3.94 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cheap?window=7d) | 7,517 | 95.81% ±2.59 | +1.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cheap) | 7,542 | 95.71% ±2.58 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cheap?window=all) | 7,542 | 95.71% ±2.58 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,542 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $216 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $184 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $165 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-battle-scarred) | 1 in 142,857 | $108 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $92.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $82.12 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52,632 | $68.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 55,556 | $66.17 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30,303 | $53.38 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12,987 | $38.59 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $31.86 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 5,587 | $27.92 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.22× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 3,831 | $26.68 | 0.4% | 4 | 2.0 | 2.03× |
| [AWP \| Black Nile (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-black-nile-factory-new) | 1 in 595 | $10.44 | 1.1% | 9 | 12.7 | 0.71× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) | 1 in 290 | $9.56 | 2.1% | 37 | 26.0 | 1.42× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-field-tested) | 1 in 174 | $6.60 | 2.4% | 43 | 43.3 | 0.99× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 146 | $6.53 | 2.8% | 55 | 51.7 | 1.06× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 151 | $6.44 | 2.7% | 51 | 49.9 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) | 1 in 138 | $5.82 | 2.7% | 55 | 54.6 | 1.01× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 126 | $5.66 | 2.8% | 57 | 59.7 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-minimal-wear) | 1 in 127 | $5.45 | 2.7% | 55 | 59.2 | 0.93× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $4.68 | 3.3% | 110 | 84.3 | 1.31× |
| [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $4.40 | 3.0% | 74 | 80.1 | 0.92× |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $4.28 | 2.9% | 73 | 80.9 | 0.90× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $4.23 | 3.9% | 102 | 110.9 | 0.92× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $4.06 | 3.5% | 104 | 103.1 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $3.57 | 4.0% | 133 | 131.8 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $2.94 | 3.3% | 132 | 134.3 | 0.98× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43 | $2.81 | 4.2% | 191 | 176.2 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $2.68 | 3.8% | 163 | 167.8 | 0.97× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $2.27 | 4.7% | 260 | 244.4 | 1.06× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-well-worn) | 1 in 34 | $2.25 | 4.2% | 222 | 221.6 | 1.00× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $2.19 | 4.4% | 237 | 237.9 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $1.37 | 5.4% | 444 | 465.3 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $1.35 | 5.1% | 443 | 446.7 | 0.99× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Wild Berry (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $1.28 | 4.7% | 434 | 440.2 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $1.13 | 4.7% | 511 | 494.2 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $0.77 | 3.6% | 551 | 556.3 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Glockingbird (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.60 | 3.3% | 674 | 647.6 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $0.55 | 3.0% | 617 | 652.4 | 0.95× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ocean Topo (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-ocean-topo-factory-new) | 10.8% | $0.31 | 2.1% | 847 | 815.3 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-oceanic-field-tested) | 11.8% | $0.26 | 1.9% | 847 | 888.0 | 0.95× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/cheap/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=cheap)

[StatTrak™ P2000 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-oceanic-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $1.68 $0.26 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $1.68 $0.55 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:05 UTC

[USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) [Кент парламента](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9A%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%20%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82%D0%B0) $1.68 $0.55 0.33x 2026-11-11 11:19 UTC

[FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) [мамба](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0) $1.68 $1.37 0.82x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-wild-berry-minimal-wear) [мамба](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0) $1.68 $1.28 0.76x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-battle-scarred) [мамба](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0) $1.68 $0.60 0.36x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crimson Foil (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-well-worn) [мамба](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0) $1.68 $2.25 1.34x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-battle-scarred) [мамба](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0) $1.68 $0.77 0.46x 2026-11-11 09:51 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-minimal-wear) [мамба](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0) $1.68 $5.82 3.46x 2026-11-11 09:50 UTC

[Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-glockingbird-battle-scarred) [мамба](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B1%D0%B0) $1.68 $0.60 0.36x 2026-11-11 09:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.68 | 93.88% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.73 | 91.17% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.73 | 91.27% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% Covert 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.0% rare 1.1% Ancient 0.0% classified 1.9% #4b69ff 6.3% Mythical 0.3% #d32ce6 3.5% Classified 0.7% pink 4.5% Legendary 1.5% #d32ee6 1.4% restricted 10.4% violet 25.5% blueLight 5.9% milspec 17.6% #8847ff 8.6% Uncommon 10.8% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.88 on average: an expected loss of $6.12 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt