---
title: "Chicks case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Chicks ($1.68) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.17% from 49 items with odds, observed 94.88% over 4,754 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chicks
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:48Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Chicks](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chicks)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Chicks

A case on CSGORUN (chickens), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chicks?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chicks?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chicks) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chicks?window=all)

Price · $1.68

Advertised RTP · 92.17% · EV $1.55 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.88% · 4,754 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 105.65% ±6.73 1,107 openings

7 days · 96.42% ±3.75 3,569 openings

30 days · 94.88% ±3.25 4,754 openings

since tracking started · 94.88% ±3.25 4,754 openings

91.0% 102.0% 113.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chicks?window=24h) | 1,107 | 105.65% ±6.73 | +3.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chicks?window=7d) | 3,569 | 96.42% ±3.75 | +2.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chicks) | 4,754 | 94.88% ±3.25 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chicks?window=all) | 4,754 | 94.88% ±3.25 | +1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,754 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $488 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $237 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $119 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111,111 | $86.84 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 58,824 | $69.12 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-boreal-forest-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37,037 | $55.51 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43,478 | $54.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-emerald-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,753 | $33.74 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 5,917 | $26.06 | 0.3% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fowl-play-well-worn) | 1 in 2,770 | $20.04 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 1,718 | $14.81 | 0.6% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,120 | $12.89 | 0.7% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.94× |
| [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 291 | $12.47 | 2.8% | 17 | 16.4 | 1.04× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 509 | $11.94 | 1.5% | 14 | 9.3 | 1.50× |
| [P90 \| Sunset Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-sunset-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 711 | $11.20 | 1.0% | 14 | 6.7 | 2.09× |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 468 | $9.68 | 1.3% | 17 | 10.2 | 1.67× |
| [FAMAS \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-minimal-wear) | 1 in 454 | $9.09 | 1.3% | 10 | 10.5 | 0.95× |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-well-worn) | 1 in 155 | $5.78 | 2.4% | 27 | 30.6 | 0.88× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-battle-scarred) | 1 in 149 | $5.68 | 2.5% | 29 | 31.9 | 0.91× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 120 | $4.92 | 2.6% | 33 | 39.6 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-epicenter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 109 | $4.90 | 2.9% | 41 | 43.7 | 0.94× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-well-worn) | 1 in 124 | $4.75 | 2.5% | 37 | 38.5 | 0.96× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-well-worn) | 1 in 93 | $4.51 | 3.1% | 50 | 51.1 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 69 | $3.57 | 3.3% | 77 | 69.1 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 70 | $3.37 | 3.1% | 68 | 67.5 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-factory-new) | 1 in 63 | $2.97 | 3.0% | 67 | 75.3 | 0.89× |
| [UMP-45 \| Gold Bismuth (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-gold-bismuth-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $2.53 | 3.4% | 109 | 99.1 | 1.10× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $2.50 | 4.0% | 134 | 117.8 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-field-tested) | 1 in 44 | $2.50 | 3.7% | 87 | 107.8 | 0.81× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-tigris-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $2.38 | 4.2% | 112 | 131.2 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Grinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-grinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $1.96 | 3.4% | 122 | 129.4 | 0.94× |
| [AK-47 \| Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-well-worn) | 1 in 26 | $1.85 | 4.6% | 185 | 184.7 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Crimson Tsunami (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-crimson-tsunami-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.79 | 5.2% | 190 | 215.3 | 0.88× |
| [MP7 \| Amberline (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-amberline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.66 | 4.9% | 210 | 215.1 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-well-worn) | 1 in 28 | $1.64 | 3.8% | 177 | 171.1 | 1.03× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-tilted-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.35 | 3.9% | 240 | 213.9 | 1.12× |
| [P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.29 | 3.8% | 237 | 215.3 | 1.10× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-space-cat-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.27 | 3.7% | 214 | 213.9 | 1.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.10 | 3.2% | 225 | 212.6 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.98 | 2.8% | 212 | 209.2 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-converter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.82 | 2.3% | 197 | 210.2 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Echoing Sands (Minimal Wear) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-echoing-sands-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $0.49 | 1.4% | 191 | 207.4 | 0.92× |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.48 | 1.3% | 201 | 206.7 | 0.97× |
| [G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.45 | 1.3% | 216 | 206.9 | 1.04× |
| [AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-amber-slipstream-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.39 | 1.1% | 222 | 204.3 | 1.09× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Banana Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $0.32 | 0.9% | 178 | 202.4 | 0.88× |
| [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Tango (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-tango-battle-scarred) | 1 in 24 | $0.29 | 0.8% | 212 | 201.6 | 1.05× |
| [MP7 \| Sunbaked (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.05 | 0.1% | 193 | 189.2 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $0.01 | 0.0% | 177 | 178.2 | 0.99× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/chicks/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-battle-scarred) [MartiniIce](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MartiniIce) $1.68 $86.84 51.69x 2026-11-11 12:16 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=chicks)

[P2000 | Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) [Электрон ебучий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%B5%D0%B1%D1%83%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B9) $1.68 $1.29 0.77x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) [Электрон ебучий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%B5%D0%B1%D1%83%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B9) $1.68 $1.10 0.65x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) [Электрон ебучий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%B5%D0%B1%D1%83%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B9) $1.68 $1.10 0.65x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[G3SG1 | Black Sand (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-black-sand-battle-scarred) [Электрон ебучий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%B5%D0%B1%D1%83%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B9) $1.68 $0.45 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[AK-47 | Emerald Pinstripe (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-emerald-pinstripe-well-worn) [Электрон ебучий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%B5%D0%B1%D1%83%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B9) $1.68 $1.85 1.10x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[MP7 | Sunbaked (Well-Worn) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-well-worn) [Электрон ебучий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%B5%D0%B1%D1%83%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B9) $1.68 $0.05 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Tango (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-tango-battle-scarred) [Электрон ебучий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%B5%D0%B1%D1%83%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B9) $1.68 $0.29 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) [Электрон ебучий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%B5%D0%B1%D1%83%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B9) $1.68 $1.10 0.65x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Honey Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-field-tested) [Электрон ебучий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%B5%D0%B1%D1%83%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B9) $1.68 $0.01 0.01x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-fever-dream-field-tested) [Электрон ебучий](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%AD%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%BD%20%D0%B5%D0%B1%D1%83%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%B9) $1.68 $0.98 0.58x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.68 | 92.17% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.68 | 92.04% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 4.4% 3 4.3% legendary 0.0% gold 0.0% sunny 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% covert knife 0.0% classified 2.9% #d32ee6 0.7% blue 0.1% industrial 0.5% pink 6.2% Mythical 8.9% restricted 12.2% #8847ff 16.9% violet 9.0% blueLight 4.5% mil spec 17.6% Mil Spec 4.2% Common 4.0% #b0c3d9 3.7% best hit $86.84 (51.69x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.17 on average: an expected loss of $7.83 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt