---
title: "Chillguy case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Chillguy ($0.16) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.67% from 46 items with odds, observed 88.43% over 7,072 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chillguy
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Chillguy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chillguy)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Chillguy

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chillguy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chillguy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chillguy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chillguy?window=all)

Price · $0.16

Advertised RTP · 88.67% · EV $0.14 from 46 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.43% · 7,072 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 84.20% ±8.53 910 openings

7 days · 87.47% ±3.19 6,566 openings

30 days · 88.43% ±3.09 7,072 openings

since tracking started · 88.43% ±3.09 7,072 openings

75.0% 84.3% 93.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chillguy?window=24h) | 910 | 84.20% ±8.53 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chillguy?window=7d) | 6,566 | 87.47% ±3.19 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chillguy) | 7,072 | 88.43% ±3.09 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chillguy?window=all) | 7,072 | 88.43% ±3.09 | −0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,072 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Basilisk (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-basilisk-field-tested) | 1 in 333,333 | $22.15 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333,333 | $19.60 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250,000 | $15.46 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 142,857 | $11.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 142,857 | $11.34 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 125,000 | $10.61 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-fuel-injector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111,111 | $10.30 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76,923 | $8.68 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55,556 | $6.70 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-syndicate-well-worn) | 1 in 34,483 | $5.37 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 26,316 | $5.09 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-field-tested) | 1 in 19,608 | $4.21 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-factory-new) | 1 in 8,130 | $4.12 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,753 | $3.75 | 0.2% | 3 | 0.7 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Phoenix Marker (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-phoenix-marker-field-tested) | 1 in 14,493 | $3.63 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Rapid Transit (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-rapid-transit-field-tested) | 1 in 7,634 | $3.60 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 6,061 | $2.59 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.86× |
| [P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-obsidian-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,618 | $1.83 | 0.5% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heat (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-heat-well-worn) | 1 in 1,401 | $1.54 | 0.8% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.79× |
| [FAMAS \| Neural Net (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,613 | $1.52 | 0.7% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [XM1014 \| Monster Melt (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-monster-melt-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,008 | $1.44 | 0.5% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.14× |
| [MP5-SD \| Statics (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-statics-factory-new) | 1 in 839 | $1.28 | 1.1% | 12 | 8.4 | 1.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 699 | $1.18 | 1.2% | 7 | 10.1 | 0.69× |
| [P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-chopper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,032 | $1.10 | 0.8% | 9 | 6.9 | 1.31× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 465 | $0.99 | 1.5% | 13 | 15.2 | 0.85× |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 216 | $0.81 | 2.6% | 31 | 32.7 | 0.95× |
| [Tec-9 \| Mummy's Rot (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-mummys-rot-well-worn) | 1 in 246 | $0.76 | 2.2% | 24 | 28.7 | 0.84× |
| [P90 \| Randy Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-randy-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $0.69 | 3.9% | 36 | 56.4 | 0.64× |
| [MP9 \| Shredded (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-shredded-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $0.66 | 3.0% | 52 | 45.9 | 1.13× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-sakkaku-well-worn) | 1 in 129 | $0.59 | 3.2% | 61 | 54.9 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Umbral Rabbit (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #F2F8FF](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-umbral-rabbit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 105 | $0.52 | 3.5% | 55 | 67.2 | 0.82× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-well-worn) | 1 in 51 | $0.37 | 5.1% | 157 | 139.2 | 1.13× |
| [Negev \| Bulkhead (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-bulkhead-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $0.23 | 6.1% | 248 | 266.3 | 0.93× |
| [MP9 \| Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-cobalt-paisley-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $0.18 | 5.6% | 314 | 310.2 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.17 | 6.2% | 388 | 367.2 | 1.06× |
| [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.16 | 7.8% | 506 | 491.3 | 1.03× |
| [P250 \| Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.15 | 7.4% | 456 | 493.7 | 0.92× |
| [FAMAS \| Teardown (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-teardown-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.14 | 6.9% | 516 | 493.7 | 1.05× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Spirit Board (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.12 | 6.0% | 526 | 498.4 | 1.06× |
| [MAC-10 \| Poplar Thicket (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-poplar-thicket-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.10 | 5.1% | 487 | 510.9 | 0.95× |
| [Sticker \| Clown Wig sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clown-wig) | 1 in 14 | $0.09 | 4.6% | 529 | 507.2 | 1.04× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Fusion (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-fusion-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $0.07 | 3.6% | 494 | 515.1 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Cold Fusion (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $0.06 | 3.1% | 575 | 525.8 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| Team Spirit \| Shanghai 2024 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-spirit-shanghai-2024) | 1 in 13 | $0.03 | 1.6% | 548 | 542.5 | 1.01× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Honey Paisley (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-honey-paisley-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $0.03 | 1.6% | 487 | 542.9 | 0.90× |
| [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · #B0C3D9](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $0.03 | 1.6% | 523 | 520.0 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/chillguy/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=chillguy)

[Galil AR | Cold Fusion (Field-Tested) weapon · #87c7ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cold-fusion-field-tested) [Burka](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Burka) $0.16 $0.06 0.38x 2026-11-11 12:27 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-minimal-wear) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.16 $0.12 0.75x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.16 $0.16 1.00x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.16 $0.15 0.94x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.16 $0.15 0.94x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.16 $0.15 0.94x 2026-11-11 12:15 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-spirit-board-minimal-wear) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.16 $0.12 0.75x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-sedimentary-factory-new) [NeLoMoHsTr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/NeLoMoHsTr) $0.16 $0.15 0.94x 2026-11-11 12:14 UTC

[Nova | Wurst Hölle (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-well-worn) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $0.16 $0.17 1.06x 2026-11-11 12:13 UTC

[AWP | Safari Mesh (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-well-worn) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $0.16 $0.16 1.00x 2026-11-11 12:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.16 | 88.67% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.15 | 94.58% | 46 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.15 | 96.47% | 46 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 0.0% restricted 1.8% classified 0.0% uncommon 0.0% Classified 0.0% #8847ff 0.1% blue 12.3% violet 2.3% mil spec 0.4% milspec 4.5% Mythical 0.5% Rare 7.9% #F2F8FF 1.0% industrial 10.7% #5e98d9 7.0% #4b69ff 21.4% #87c7ff 7.4% other 7.7% Common 7.7% #B0C3D9 7.4% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.67 on average: an expected loss of $11.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt