---
title: "Chopshop case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Chopshop ($46.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.68% from 33 items with odds, observed 78.91% over 23 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chopshop
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Chopshop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chopshop)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Chopshop

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chopshop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chopshop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chopshop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chopshop?window=all)

Price · $46.99

Advertised RTP · 95.68% · EV $44.96 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 78.91% · 23 openings, sample method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 23 openings · below min

30 days · 23 openings · below min

since tracking started · 23 openings · below min

58.5% 78.8% 99.0%

**Small sample.** 23 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chopshop?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chopshop?window=7d) | 23 | 78.91% ±19.7 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chopshop) | 23 | 78.91% ±19.7 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chopshop?window=all) | 23 | 78.91% ±19.7 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,908 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,284 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-factory-new) | 1 in 986 | $438 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,094 | $415 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 332 | $289 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) | 1 in 252 | $280 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-factory-new) | 1 in 307 | $265 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-field-tested) | 1 in 276 | $233 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-field-tested) | 1 in 163 | $220 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 159 | $217 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-field-tested) | 1 in 153 | $209 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bulldozer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $181 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-factory-new) | 1 in 32 | $86.85 | 6.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $78.36 | 5.0% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $70.91 | 12.5% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.64× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $67.34 | 6.7% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $55.68 | 7.4% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.18× |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $45.69 | 8.4% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $37.31 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $35.29 | 3.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $34.89 | 3.3% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $34.41 | 3.2% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $28.98 | 2.7% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $28.31 | 2.6% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $28.15 | 2.6% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $26.67 | 2.5% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $23.07 | 2.2% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $12.41 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $11.82 | 1.1% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [M249 \| Impact Drill (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-impact-drill-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $8.65 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $8.28 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Urban Rubble (Minimal Wear) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $7.19 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Seabird (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $6.64 | 0.6% | 0 | 1.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/chopshop/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=chopshop)

[P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) [extazi68](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/extazi68) $46.99 $55.68 1.18x 2026-11-08 06:42 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $46.99 $8.28 0.18x 2026-11-06 15:44 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Night (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-night-field-tested) [PercySlammer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/PercySlammer) $46.99 $12.41 0.26x 2026-11-06 14:09 UTC

[Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $46.99 $12.04 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[MAC-10 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $46.99 $37.42 0.80x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nitro-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $46.99 $35.45 0.75x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-urban-rubble-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $46.99 $12.04 0.26x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[MP7 | Full Stop (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-full-stop-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $46.99 $28.51 0.61x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $46.99 $7.88 0.17x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

[P250 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-whiteout-minimal-wear) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $46.99 $57.47 1.22x 2026-11-05 20:15 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $46.99 | 95.68% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $46.99 | 94.00% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 1.3% restricted 2.7% mil spec 39.5% industrial 19.9% Mil Spec Grade 7.1% blue 4.2% milspec 4.2% #4b69ff 4.2% light blue 4.2% consumer 8.4% blueLight 4.2% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.68 on average: an expected loss of $4.32 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt