---
title: "Chroma case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Chroma ($1.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.42% from 36 items with odds, observed 92.17% over 357 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Chroma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Chroma

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma?window=all)

Price · $1.49

Advertised RTP · 92.42% · EV $1.38 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.17% · 357 openings, sample method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 20 openings · below min

7 days · 357 openings · below min

30 days · 357 openings · below min

since tracking started · 357 openings · below min

46.5% 82.5% 118.5%

**Small sample.** 357 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma?window=24h) | 20 | 82.62% ±35.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma?window=7d) | 357 | 92.17% ±7.12 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma) | 357 | 92.17% ±7.12 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma?window=all) | 357 | 92.17% ±7.12 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 357 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $230 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $182 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $119 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $77.48 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 90,909 | $42.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-factory-new) | 1 in 66,667 | $41.66 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $23.77 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-factory-new) | 1 in 5,495 | $19.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-field-tested) | 1 in 2,681 | $14.95 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,618 | $14.48 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-factory-new) | 1 in 566 | $8.90 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 152 | $5.32 | 2.5% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-factory-new) | 1 in 97 | $4.24 | 3.2% | 7 | 3.7 | 1.90× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $3.97 | 2.9% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-minimal-wear) | 1 in 72 | $3.70 | 3.7% | 1 | 4.9 | 0.20× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-factory-new) | 1 in 65 | $3.39 | 3.8% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.73× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $3.01 | 5.3% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.16× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $2.58 | 5.5% | 15 | 10.5 | 1.43× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Minimal Wear) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $2.45 | 5.4% | 5 | 10.9 | 0.46× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.20 | 7.4% | 19 | 16.5 | 1.15× |
| [MAC-10 \| Malachite (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-malachite-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.97 | 7.1% | 21 | 17.7 | 1.19× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.81 | 8.3% | 22 | 22.6 | 0.97× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $1.58 | 9.6% | 30 | 30.0 | 1.00× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $1.35 | 4.6% | 15 | 16.9 | 0.89× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $1.13 | 3.9% | 19 | 16.9 | 1.13× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.86 | 2.9% | 24 | 16.9 | 1.42× |
| [Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.79 | 2.7% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.95× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.76 | 2.6% | 15 | 16.9 | 0.89× |
| [MP9 \| Deadly Poison (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.70 | 2.4% | 23 | 16.9 | 1.36× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.62 | 2.1% | 17 | 16.9 | 1.01× |
| [XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $0.61 | 2.1% | 12 | 16.9 | 0.71× |
| [M249 \| System Lock (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.59 | 2.0% | 17 | 16.9 | 1.01× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.56 | 1.9% | 13 | 16.9 | 0.77× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Grotto (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.55 | 1.9% | 20 | 16.9 | 1.19× |
| [XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $0.49 | 1.7% | 12 | 16.9 | 0.71× |
| [XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.48 | 1.6% | 15 | 16.9 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/chroma/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=chroma)

[SCAR-20 | Grotto (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-minimal-wear) [Леонель Месик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%20%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BA) $1.49 $0.55 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Naga (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-field-tested) [Леонель Месик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9B%D0%B5%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BB%D1%8C%20%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BA) $1.49 $1.81 1.21x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Grotto (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-grotto-field-tested) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $1.49 $0.56 0.38x 2026-11-11 00:18 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-field-tested) [w1rKnezZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/w1rKnezZ) $1.49 $0.62 0.42x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC

[Glock-18 | Catacombs (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-catacombs-field-tested) [Andrejka\_228](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Andrejka_228) $1.49 $0.79 0.53x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) [Andrejka\_228](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Andrejka_228) $1.49 $1.58 1.06x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-field-tested) [Andrejka\_228](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Andrejka_228) $1.49 $1.58 1.06x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC

[MP9 | Deadly Poison (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-deadly-poison-minimal-wear) [Andrejka\_228](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Andrejka_228) $1.49 $0.86 0.58x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC

[M249 | System Lock (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-system-lock-factory-new) [Andrejka\_228](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Andrejka_228) $1.49 $1.35 0.91x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Serenity (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-minimal-wear) [Andrejka\_228](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Andrejka_228) $1.49 $2.58 1.73x 2026-11-10 15:18 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.49 | 92.42% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.49 | 94.00% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 3.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.1% mil spec 42.7% restricted 17.9% Mil Spec 1.0% violet 2.9% #8847ff 13.3% Rare 18.9% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.42 on average: an expected loss of $7.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt