--- title: "Chroma 2 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Chroma 2 ($1.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 94.09% from 36 items with odds, observed 97.16% over 617 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma2 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Chroma 2](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma2) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Chroma 2 A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma2?window=all) Price · $1.99 Advertised RTP · 94.09% · EV $1.87 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.16% · 617 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 89.96% ±17.70 220 openings 7 days · 97.16% ±10.57 617 openings 30 days · 97.16% ±10.57 617 openings since tracking started · 97.16% ±10.57 617 openings 71.5% 90.0% 108.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma2?window=24h) | 220 | 89.96% ±17.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma2?window=7d) | 617 | 97.16% ±10.6 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma2) | 617 | 97.16% ±10.6 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma2?window=all) | 617 | 97.16% ±10.6 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 876 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $301 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $217 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $124 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 47,619 | $115 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,641 | $77.48 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21,277 | $71.65 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,905 | $58.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 9,709 | $56.01 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 8,547 | $53.11 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [FAMAS \| Djinn (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-factory-new) | 1 in 2,273 | $27.72 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,527 | $26.54 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [FAMAS \| Djinn (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 282 | $13.23 | 2.5% | 7 | 3.1 | 2.25× | | [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 264 | $13.18 | 2.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.90× | | [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-field-tested) | 1 in 251 | $13.00 | 2.8% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× | | [FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-djinn-field-tested) | 1 in 224 | $12.65 | 3.0% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-factory-new) | 1 in 82 | $7.04 | 4.6% | 12 | 10.7 | 1.13× | | [MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $5.50 | 5.1% | 15 | 15.1 | 0.99× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $3.76 | 7.0% | 32 | 30.5 | 1.05× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $3.63 | 6.7% | 36 | 30.3 | 1.19× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $3.07 | 7.4% | 27 | 39.4 | 0.69× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $2.51 | 8.0% | 53 | 52.4 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-worm-god-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $2.22 | 9.5% | 67 | 69.9 | 0.96× | | [MAG-7 \| Heat (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.02 | 5.4% | 43 | 43.8 | 0.98× | | [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.92 | 5.1% | 35 | 43.8 | 0.80× | | [P250 \| Valence (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $1.73 | 4.6% | 48 | 43.8 | 1.10× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $1.68 | 4.5% | 44 | 43.8 | 1.01× | | [UMP-45 \| Grand Prix (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-grand-prix-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.33 | 3.5% | 56 | 43.8 | 1.28× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.32 | 3.5% | 51 | 43.8 | 1.17× | | [MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $1.30 | 3.5% | 31 | 43.8 | 0.71× | | [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.63 | 1.7% | 42 | 43.8 | 0.96× | | [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.52 | 1.4% | 53 | 43.8 | 1.21× | | [MP7 \| Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.37 | 1.0% | 52 | 43.8 | 1.19× | | [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $0.37 | 1.0% | 54 | 43.8 | 1.23× | | [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.35 | 0.9% | 37 | 43.8 | 0.85× | | [Sawed-Off \| Origami (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $0.29 | 0.8% | 39 | 43.8 | 0.89× | | [P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.26 | 0.7% | 31 | 43.7 | 0.71× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/chroma2/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=chroma2) [MP7 | Armor Core (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-armor-core-minimal-wear) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $1.99 $0.37 0.19x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-factory-new) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $0.63 0.32x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-field-tested) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $1.32 0.66x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Pole Position (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-pole-position-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $1.68 0.84x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [MAG-7 | Heat (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-field-tested) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $1.30 0.65x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $0.37 0.19x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $0.52 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $0.52 0.26x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $1.92 0.96x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC [Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-origami-factory-new) [orpheus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/orpheus) $1.99 $0.37 0.19x 2026-11-11 10:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.99 | 94.09% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.99 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 0.9% Covert 0.0% #d32ee6 0.4% pink 0.4% mil spec 26.2% Mythical 6.7% #8847ff 9.5% restricted 26.4% milspec 9.5% Rare 10.0% violet 5.0% blue 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $94.09 on average: an expected loss of $5.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt