--- title: "Chroma 3 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Chroma 3 ($1.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.90% from 36 items with odds, observed 87.47% over 272 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma3 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Chroma 3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma3) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Chroma 3 A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma3?window=all) Price · $1.99 Advertised RTP · 92.90% · EV $1.85 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.47% · 272 openings, sample method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 5 openings · below min 7 days · 272 openings · below min 30 days · 272 openings · below min since tracking started · 272 openings · below min 71.5% 205.5% 339.5% **Small sample.** 272 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma3?window=24h) | 5 | 208.64% ±130.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma3?window=7d) | 272 | 87.47% ±15.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma3) | 272 | 87.47% ±15.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/chroma3?window=all) | 272 | 87.47% ±15.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 272 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 125,000 | $301 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 76,923 | $217 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $120 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [PP-Bizon \| Judgement of Anubis (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-judgement-of-anubis-field-tested) | 1 in 31,250 | $115 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,364 | $58.49 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Gut Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 8,197 | $53.11 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,727 | $28.20 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-factory-new) | 1 in 933 | $20.30 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-factory-new) | 1 in 435 | $16.23 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-minimal-wear) | 1 in 290 | $13.75 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 240 | $13.24 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) | 1 in 242 | $13.09 | 2.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× | | [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 215 | $12.64 | 3.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-field-tested) | 1 in 211 | $12.58 | 3.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.78× | | [Galil AR \| Firefight (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-factory-new) | 1 in 131 | $9.58 | 4.0% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× | | [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 95 | $7.81 | 4.4% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× | | [Tec-9 \| Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $6.39 | 5.2% | 5 | 4.1 | 1.22× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $3.06 | 7.8% | 8 | 12.8 | 0.62× | | [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $2.79 | 8.0% | 14 | 14.4 | 0.97× | | [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $2.23 | 8.7% | 16 | 19.7 | 0.81× | | [Galil AR \| Firefight (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $2.06 | 9.2% | 24 | 22.4 | 1.07× | | [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.65 | 4.1% | 14 | 12.5 | 1.12× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.58 | 3.9% | 13 | 12.5 | 1.04× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Red Astor (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.33 | 3.3% | 9 | 12.5 | 0.72× | | [XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.32 | 3.3% | 14 | 12.5 | 1.12× | | [P2000 \| Oceanic (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $1.29 | 3.2% | 15 | 12.5 | 1.20× | | [Galil AR \| Firefight (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-firefight-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.27 | 3.1% | 16 | 12.5 | 1.28× | | [SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-ghost-crusader-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.25 | 3.1% | 11 | 12.5 | 0.88× | | [SG 553 \| Atlas (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-atlas-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.72 | 1.8% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× | | [MP9 \| Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.48 | 1.2% | 14 | 12.5 | 1.12× | | [G3SG1 \| Orange Crash (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-crash-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.47 | 1.2% | 15 | 12.5 | 1.20× | | [M249 \| Spectre (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.38 | 0.9% | 9 | 12.5 | 0.72× | | [Dual Berettas \| Ventilators (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-ventilators-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.36 | 0.9% | 18 | 12.5 | 1.45× | | [M249 \| Spectre (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.35 | 0.9% | 15 | 12.5 | 1.20× | | [P2000 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-oceanic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.34 | 0.8% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× | | [MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.32 | 0.8% | 13 | 12.5 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/chroma3/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=chroma3) [AUG | Fleet Flock (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-fleet-flock-field-tested) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $1.99 $13.09 6.58x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [MP9 | Bioleak (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-minimal-wear) [Miks34](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Miks34) $1.99 $0.32 0.16x 2026-11-11 08:57 UTC [MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) [Gigant\_k1fl](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Gigant_k1fl) $1.99 $0.48 0.24x 2026-11-10 20:15 UTC [MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) [GiganticNax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GiganticNax) $1.99 $0.48 0.24x 2026-11-10 19:13 UTC [Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) [GiganticNax](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GiganticNax) $1.99 $6.39 3.21x 2026-11-10 19:13 UTC [MP9 | Bioleak (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bioleak-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.99 $0.48 0.24x 2026-11-09 19:36 UTC [CZ75-Auto | Red Astor (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-red-astor-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.99 $1.58 0.79x 2026-11-09 19:36 UTC [Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-re-entry-factory-new) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.99 $6.39 3.21x 2026-11-09 19:36 UTC [M249 | Spectre (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-spectre-minimal-wear) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.99 $0.35 0.18x 2026-11-09 19:36 UTC [XM1014 | Black Tie (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) [BE HUMBLE](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/BE%20HUMBLE) $1.99 $1.32 0.66x 2026-11-09 19:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.99 | 92.90% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.99 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% Covert 0.0% classified 1.3% Legendary 0.3% #d32ee6 0.4% pink 0.5% restricted 27.1% violet 11.8% Mythical 8.2% Restricted 4.6% mil spec 13.7% #8847ff 4.6% milspec 4.6% Rare 22.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.90 on average: an expected loss of $7.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt