---
title: "Classic fuel case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Classic fuel ($1.75) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.64% from 42 items with odds, observed 90.54% over 132 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classic-fuel
rendered: 2026-11-11T16:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Classic fuel](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classic-fuel)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Classic fuel

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classic-fuel?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classic-fuel?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classic-fuel) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classic-fuel?window=all)

Price · $1.75

Advertised RTP · 93.64% · EV $1.64 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.54% · 132 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 19.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.2% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 75 openings · below min

30 days · 90.54% ±23.54 132 openings

since tracking started · 90.54% ±23.54 132 openings

-0.5% 105.8% 212.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classic-fuel?window=24h) | 3 | 54.86% ±156.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classic-fuel?window=7d) | 75 | 81.79% ±31.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classic-fuel) | 132 | 90.54% ±23.5 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classic-fuel?window=all) | 132 | 90.54% ±23.5 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 135 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $900 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $627 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $431 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $417 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $297 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lime Polycam (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lime-polycam-well-worn) | 1 in 500,000 | $256 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $162 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125,000 | $123 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Plum Quill (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-plum-quill-well-worn) | 1 in 100,000 | $103 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-blood-pressure-battle-scarred) | 1 in 52,632 | $75.20 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30,303 | $56.82 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 15,152 | $45.83 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-well-worn) | 1 in 9,259 | $38.73 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,636 | $27.40 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 840 | $16.30 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Hellish (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellish-well-worn) | 1 in 386 | $11.34 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 317 | $10.14 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crane-flight-well-worn) | 1 in 280 | $9.68 | 2.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-boost-protocol-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $8.54 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) | 1 in 107 | $6.06 | 3.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.58× |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-battle-scarred) | 1 in 115 | $5.74 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $5.57 | 3.7% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.72× |
| [Glock-18 \| Trace Lock (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-trace-lock-factory-new) | 1 in 94 | $5.16 | 3.4% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-field-tested) | 1 in 59 | $4.72 | 4.9% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $4.36 | 4.3% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [AWP \| Exothermic (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $4.24 | 3.8% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-kintsugi-battle-scarred) | 1 in 56 | $4.06 | 4.5% | 4 | 2.4 | 1.65× |
| [USP-S \| Purple DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-purple-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $2.79 | 4.3% | 3 | 3.4 | 0.88× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.01 | 6.3% | 8 | 6.9 | 1.16× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $1.94 | 6.3% | 4 | 7.2 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $1.91 | 5.4% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.12× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $1.69 | 6.6% | 2 | 8.6 | 0.23× |
| [P250 \| Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $1.50 | 5.9% | 13 | 8.8 | 1.49× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.23 | 4.9% | 5 | 8.7 | 0.57× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.95 | 3.7% | 10 | 8.7 | 1.15× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.92 | 3.6% | 9 | 8.7 | 1.04× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $0.76 | 3.0% | 12 | 8.7 | 1.39× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $0.66 | 2.6% | 15 | 8.6 | 1.73× |
| [USP-S \| Silent Shot (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-silent-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.54 | 2.1% | 5 | 8.6 | 0.58× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-well-worn) | 1 in 16 | $0.30 | 1.2% | 7 | 8.5 | 0.82× |
| [P90 \| Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-aeolian-light-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.29 | 1.1% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.21 | 0.8% | 12 | 8.4 | 1.42× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/classic_fuel/show`, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=classic-fuel)

[USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $1.75 $0.21 0.12x 2026-11-11 01:58 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $1.75 $0.76 0.43x 2026-11-11 01:58 UTC

[AK-47 | Breakthrough (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-breakthrough-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $1.75 $1.91 1.09x 2026-11-11 01:58 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $1.75 $0.95 0.54x 2026-11-09 16:31 UTC

[P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-wingshot-field-tested) [karch](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karch) $1.75 $1.50 0.86x 2026-11-09 15:23 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-factory-new) [izvrashenezv](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/izvrashenezv) $1.75 $0.76 0.43x 2026-11-07 15:30 UTC

[AWP | Exothermic (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-exothermic-minimal-wear) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.75 $4.24 2.42x 2026-11-07 09:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.75 $1.69 0.97x 2026-11-07 09:39 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-minimal-wear) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.75 $2.01 1.15x 2026-11-07 09:39 UTC

[USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-battle-scarred) [D1L-Duck](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/D1L-Duck) $1.75 $0.66 0.38x 2026-11-07 09:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.75 | 93.64% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.78 | 92.06% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.78 | 92.34% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 6.6% rare 0.0% epic 0.0% sunny 0.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.0% pink 11.8% uncommon 0.3% Mythical 15.5% classified 2.6% blue 14.3% violet 11.1% Rare 12.6% #8847ff 6.4% milspec 12.6% #4b69ff 6.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.64 on average: an expected loss of $6.36 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt