--- title: "Classified case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Classified ($9.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.46% from 38 items with odds, observed 95.24% over 441 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classified rendered: 2026-11-11T15:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Classified](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classified) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Classified A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classified?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classified?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classified) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classified?window=all) Price · $9.99 Advertised RTP · 92.46% · EV $9.24 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.24% · 441 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 29.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 54.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 44 openings · below min 7 days · 95.24% ±8.24 441 openings 30 days · 95.24% ±8.24 441 openings since tracking started · 95.24% ±8.24 441 openings 59.5% 86.3% 113.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classified?window=24h) | 44 | 86.38% ±26.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classified?window=7d) | 441 | 95.24% ±8.24 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classified) | 441 | 95.24% ±8.24 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/classified?window=all) | 441 | 95.24% ±8.24 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 494 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-cinquedea-field-tested) | 1 in 250,000 | $613 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $383 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-hellfire-factory-new) | 1 in 58,824 | $293 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $227 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [P90 \| Run and Hide (Minimal Wear) weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,309 | $178 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,102 | $154 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Corticera (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-corticera-factory-new) | 1 in 2,611 | $104 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-factory-new) | 1 in 1,188 | $87.20 | 0.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-factory-new) | 1 in 613 | $64.88 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-factory-new) | 1 in 322 | $51.01 | 1.7% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× | | [SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-turbo-peek-factory-new) | 1 in 191 | $43.16 | 2.4% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.55× | | [FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-eye-of-athena-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $33.88 | 2.8% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.32× | | [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 91 | $30.27 | 3.6% | 7 | 5.4 | 1.29× | | [AUG \| Syd Mead (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-syd-mead-factory-new) | 1 in 64 | $24.96 | 4.2% | 9 | 7.7 | 1.17× | | [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $21.14 | 4.8% | 10 | 10.4 | 0.96× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $18.95 | 5.6% | 11 | 13.6 | 0.81× | | [SG 553 \| Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27 | $15.90 | 6.4% | 18 | 18.2 | 0.99× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $14.29 | 7.2% | 21 | 23.0 | 0.91× | | [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $13.24 | 8.0% | 30 | 27.5 | 1.09× | | [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $11.53 | 8.1% | 29 | 32.2 | 0.90× | | [M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-leaded-glass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $11.07 | 8.8% | 37 | 36.2 | 1.02× | | [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $10.12 | 9.0% | 30 | 40.4 | 0.74× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $8.33 | 3.1% | 19 | 16.9 | 1.13× | | [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $7.95 | 2.9% | 25 | 16.9 | 1.48× | | [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $6.64 | 2.5% | 11 | 16.9 | 0.65× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $5.78 | 2.1% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.95× | | [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $5.34 | 2.0% | 9 | 16.9 | 0.53× | | [P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $4.68 | 1.7% | 19 | 16.9 | 1.13× | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $4.38 | 1.6% | 15 | 16.9 | 0.89× | | [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.43 | 1.3% | 14 | 16.9 | 0.83× | | [AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.25 | 1.2% | 13 | 16.9 | 0.77× | | [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.13 | 1.2% | 25 | 16.9 | 1.48× | | [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $2.79 | 1.0% | 24 | 16.9 | 1.42× | | [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $2.56 | 0.9% | 17 | 16.9 | 1.01× | | [Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2.53 | 0.9% | 18 | 16.9 | 1.07× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $2.02 | 0.7% | 8 | 16.9 | 0.47× | | [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.48 | 0.5% | 24 | 16.9 | 1.42× | | [P250 \| Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $1.37 | 0.5% | 21 | 16.9 | 1.25× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/classified/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=classified) [Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) [FRIZYX](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FRIZYX) $9.99 $10.12 1.01x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-minimal-wear) [Polughoul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Polughoul) $9.99 $11.53 1.15x 2026-11-11 13:57 UTC [M4A1-S | Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $9.99 $1.48 0.15x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [USP-S | Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) [H2OLAZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/H2OLAZ) $9.99 $3.43 0.34x 2026-11-11 11:52 UTC [SG 553 | Integrale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-integrale-minimal-wear) [Mr.Morkovkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Mr.Morkovkin) $9.99 $15.90 1.59x 2026-11-11 10:37 UTC [AUG | Stymphalian (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-stymphalian-minimal-wear) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $9.99 $4.38 0.44x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $9.99 $7.95 0.80x 2026-11-11 10:07 UTC [P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-franklin-field-tested) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $9.99 $1.37 0.14x 2026-11-11 09:08 UTC [UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) [ay\_Boroda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ay_Boroda) $9.99 $13.24 1.33x 2026-11-11 09:08 UTC [Tec-9 | Remote Control (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-remote-control-field-tested) [Максим Кукленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BC%20%D0%9A%D1%83%D0%BA%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $9.99 $2.53 0.25x 2026-11-11 03:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $9.99 | 92.46% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $9.99 | 94.00% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed Classified 0.0% #d32ee6 3.4% classified 36.5% SMGs 0.0% rare 1.1% pink 29.4% Legendary 29.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.46 on average: an expected loss of $7.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt