---
title: "Clutch case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Clutch ($10.37) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.97% from 42 items with odds, observed 77.89% over 73 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/clutch
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:01Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Clutch](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/clutch)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Clutch

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/clutch?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/clutch?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/clutch) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/clutch?window=all)

Price · $10.37

Advertised RTP · 93.97% · EV $9.74 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.89% · 73 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 59.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 53 openings · below min

30 days · 73 openings · below min

since tracking started · 73 openings · below min

31.0% 84.3% 137.5%

**Small sample.** 73 openings and 18.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/clutch?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/clutch?window=7d) | 53 | 84.27% ±52.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/clutch) | 73 | 77.89% ±44.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/clutch?window=all) | 73 | 77.89% ±44.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $10.7K | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $9,837 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $7,841 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,733 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2,505 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500,000 | $1,908 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200,000 | $952 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-field-tested) | 1 in 125,000 | $718 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 83,333 | $545 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 52,632 | $372 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-fennec-fox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,329 | $189 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,842 | $131 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,089 | $93.74 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 658 | $76.11 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 399 | $69.70 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-field-tested) | 1 in 442 | $67.40 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 283 | $54.44 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 196 | $48.53 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-battle-scarred) | 1 in 95 | $32.29 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-factory-new) | 1 in 89 | $30.27 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 66 | $25.78 | 4.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $22.56 | 4.3% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.47× |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $19.16 | 4.4% | 4 | 1.6 | 2.44× |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $15.69 | 4.7% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [P250 \| Muertos (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-muertos-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $14.48 | 6.4% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.59× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $13.04 | 5.6% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $12.88 | 5.4% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $11.79 | 5.9% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.84× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $11.39 | 5.0% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-rameses-reach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $11.03 | 6.9% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| The End (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-end-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $10.20 | 5.9% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [Glock-18 \| Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $10.12 | 6.3% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $8.95 | 5.4% | 1 | 4.3 | 0.23× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 18 | $5.09 | 2.8% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.27× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $4.53 | 2.5% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.02× |
| [AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $3.13 | 1.6% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.36× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $2.70 | 1.3% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $2.10 | 1.0% | 8 | 3.5 | 2.31× |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $1.48 | 0.7% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $1.24 | 0.6% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-firebreathing-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $0.90 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| [USP-S \| Sleeping Potion (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-sleeping-potion-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $0.66 | 0.3% | 7 | 2.9 | 2.42× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/clutch/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=clutch)

[M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $10.37 $2.10 0.20x 2026-11-09 05:45 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $10.37 $11.39 1.10x 2026-11-09 05:45 UTC

[Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $10.37 $2.70 0.26x 2026-11-09 05:45 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $10.37 $3.13 0.30x 2026-11-09 05:45 UTC

[Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-vogue-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $10.37 $10.12 0.98x 2026-11-09 05:45 UTC

[MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $10.37 $12.88 1.24x 2026-11-09 05:45 UTC

[MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-mount-fuji-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $10.37 $12.88 1.24x 2026-11-09 05:44 UTC

[SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $10.37 $19.16 1.85x 2026-11-09 05:44 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $10.37 $11.39 1.10x 2026-11-09 05:44 UTC

[AWP | Duality (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $10.37 $3.13 0.30x 2026-11-09 05:44 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $10.37 | 93.97% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $10.35 | 94.15% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.35 | 93.91% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.6% extraordinary 0.0% epic 0.0% classified 14.8% #d32ee6 2.9% rare 1.3% red 0.6% violet 14.7% Covert 1.1% pink 34.9% Legendary 6.1% Classified 5.4% restricted 13.6% #8847ff 4.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.97 on average: an expected loss of $6.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt