---
title: "Cobblestone case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cobblestone ($327.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 95.47% from 15 items with odds, observed 117.58% over 110 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cobblestone
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Cobblestone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cobblestone)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Cobblestone

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cobblestone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cobblestone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cobblestone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cobblestone?window=all)

Price · $327.99

Advertised RTP · 95.47% · EV $313.12 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 117.58% · 110 openings, sample method

Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 43.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 110 openings · below min

30 days · 110 openings · below min

since tracking started · 110 openings · below min

51.0% 117.5% 184.0%

**Small sample.** 110 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cobblestone?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cobblestone?window=7d) | 110 | 117.58% ±65.7 | — | sample |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cobblestone) | 110 | 117.58% ±65.7 | — | sample |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cobblestone?window=all) | 110 | 117.58% ±65.7 | — | sample |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 110 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,799 | $12.2K | 2.2% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,125 | $9,073 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 659 | $6,856 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) | 1 in 96 | $2,729 | 9.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.87× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 12.8% | $499 | 20.4% | 12 | 14.1 | 0.85× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Chalice (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-factory-new) | 14.3% | $414 | 19.0% | 20 | 15.8 | 1.27× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) | 12.8% | $397 | 16.2% | 13 | 14.1 | 0.93× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) | 15.1% | $372 | 17.9% | 16 | 16.6 | 0.96× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $87.14 | 2.1% | 10 | 8.4 | 1.19× |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $84.41 | 2.0% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| [P2000 \| Chainmail (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $75.50 | 1.7% | 3 | 7.9 | 0.38× |
| [MP9 \| Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $55.14 | 0.9% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.90× |
| [P2000 \| Chainmail (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $54.94 | 1.1% | 15 | 6.7 | 2.23× |
| [P2000 \| Chainmail (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-chainmail-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $54.35 | 1.1% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× |
| [MAC-10 \| Indigo (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-indigo-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $29.14 | 0.4% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.91× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/cobblestone/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-factory-new) [gogi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/gogi) $328 $12K 36.46x 2026-11-05 20:28 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $328 $2,847 8.68x 2026-11-05 21:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=cobblestone)

[MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $328 $55.14 0.17x 2026-11-06 14:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $328 $372 1.13x 2026-11-06 14:13 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-chalice-factory-new) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $328 $414 1.26x 2026-11-06 14:13 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $328 $397 1.21x 2026-11-06 14:13 UTC

[MP9 | Dark Age (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-minimal-wear) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $328 $42.54 0.13x 2026-11-05 21:26 UTC

[M4A1-S | Knight (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-knight-factory-new) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $328 $2,847 8.68x 2026-11-05 21:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $328 $435 1.33x 2026-11-05 21:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-field-tested) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $328 $437 1.33x 2026-11-05 21:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-minimal-wear) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $328 $372 1.13x 2026-11-05 21:26 UTC

[MP9 | Dark Age (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dark-age-factory-new) [Оранжевый градиент](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9E%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B6%D0%B5%D0%B2%D1%8B%D0%B9%20%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%B5%D0%BD%D1%82) $328 $82.73 0.25x 2026-11-05 21:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $328 | 95.47% | 15 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $328 | 94.00% | 15 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.2% legendary 0.1% classified 1.0% restricted 55.1% industrial 7.6% #4b69ff 14.7% mil spec 17.3% Common 4.0% best hit $12K (36.46x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 95.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $95.47 on average: an expected loss of $4.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt