---
title: "Consumer case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Consumer ($0.20) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.03% from 38 items with odds, observed 90.88% over 10.4K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/consumer
rendered: 2026-11-11T12:47Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Consumer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/consumer)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Consumer

A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/consumer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/consumer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/consumer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/consumer?window=all)

Price · $0.20

Advertised RTP · 89.03% · EV $0.18 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.88% · 10.4K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 55.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 90.66% ±5.65 1,200 openings

7 days · 90.88% ±1.92 10.4K openings

30 days · 90.88% ±1.92 10.4K openings

since tracking started · 90.88% ±1.92 10.4K openings

84.5% 90.8% 97.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/consumer?window=24h) | 1,200 | 90.66% ±5.65 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/consumer?window=7d) | 10.4K | 90.88% ±1.92 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/consumer) | 10.4K | 90.88% ±1.92 | +1.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/consumer?window=all) | 10.4K | 90.88% ±1.92 | +1.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $25.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Surfwood (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-surfwood-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $19.21 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $14.40 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-factory-new) | 1 in 90,909 | $9.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tornado-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $7.25 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Moon in Libra (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-moon-in-libra-factory-new) | 1 in 19,231 | $5.52 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [M249 \| Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-jungle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,576 | $3.74 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.28× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Stone Mosaico (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-stone-mosaico-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,497 | $2.83 | 0.5% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Heist (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-heist-factory-new) | 1 in 1,420 | $2.40 | 0.9% | 4 | 8.3 | 0.48× |
| [MAC-10 \| Strats (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-strats-factory-new) | 1 in 830 | $1.76 | 1.2% | 17 | 14.2 | 1.20× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Forest Night (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-forest-night-factory-new) | 1 in 335 | $0.99 | 1.7% | 39 | 35.2 | 1.11× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-factory-new) | 1 in 178 | $0.86 | 2.7% | 83 | 66.4 | 1.25× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Death Rattle (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-death-rattle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $0.77 | 3.8% | 120 | 103.0 | 1.17× |
| [MP7 \| Army Recon (Factory New) weapon · SMGs](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-army-recon-factory-new) | 1 in 79 | $0.61 | 4.3% | 153 | 148.6 | 1.03× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Forest DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-forest-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $0.49 | 4.8% | 216 | 203.9 | 1.06× |
| [Nova \| Sand Dune (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $0.45 | 6.1% | 285 | 287.1 | 0.99× |
| [P250 \| Drought (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-drought-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $0.33 | 8.6% | 578 | 548.9 | 1.05× |
| [P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $0.29 | 5.7% | 420 | 415.9 | 1.01× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $0.24 | 9.4% | 855 | 820.2 | 1.04× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Desert Brush (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-desert-brush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.24 | 8.1% | 688 | 710.1 | 0.97× |
| [P90 \| Desert DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.22 | 9.3% | 907 | 885.5 | 1.02× |
| [SG 553 \| Bleached (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $0.20 | 9.1% | 995 | 959.4 | 1.04× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sienna Damask (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sienna-damask-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.15 | 2.9% | 440 | 412.0 | 1.07× |
| [MP7 \| Sunbaked (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-sunbaked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.14 | 2.7% | 398 | 412.0 | 0.97× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Parched (Field-Tested) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-parched-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $0.14 | 2.7% | 346 | 412.0 | 0.84× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Inlay (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.12 | 2.4% | 377 | 412.0 | 0.92× |
| [M249 \| Submerged (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-submerged-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.10 | 2.0% | 438 | 412.0 | 1.06× |
| [Tec-9 \| Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.09 | 1.8% | 408 | 412.0 | 0.99× |
| [MP9 \| Bee-Tron (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bee-tron-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.07 | 1.4% | 416 | 412.0 | 1.01× |
| [Nova \| Mandrel (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.06 | 1.2% | 416 | 412.0 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Storm (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-storm-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.05 | 1.0% | 413 | 412.0 | 1.00× |
| [MP7 \| Short Ochre (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.05 | 1.0% | 437 | 412.0 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Blue Spruce (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-blue-spruce-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.05 | 1.0% | 372 | 412.0 | 0.90× |
| [AUG \| Sweeper (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-sweeper-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.04 | 0.8% | 406 | 412.0 | 0.99× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Contractor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-contractor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.03 | 0.6% | 403 | 411.8 | 0.98× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $0.03 | 0.6% | 372 | 412.0 | 0.90× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Coolant (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-coolant-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.03 | 0.6% | 394 | 412.0 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Sage Spray (Minimal Wear) weapon · #777777](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sage-spray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 29 | $0.03 | 0.6% | 402 | 412.0 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/consumer/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=consumer)

[Tec-9 | Blue Blast (Factory New) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-blue-blast-factory-new) [ljljljljljljlljljljlljjjljljljlj](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ljljljljljljlljljljlljjjljljljlj) $0.20 $0.09 0.45x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Desert Brush (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-desert-brush-minimal-wear) [ljljljljljljlljljljlljjjljljljlj](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ljljljljljljlljljljlljjjljljljlj) $0.20 $0.24 1.20x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[SG 553 | Bleached (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-bleached-minimal-wear) [ljljljljljljlljljljlljjjljljljlj](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ljljljljljljlljljljlljjjljljljlj) $0.20 $0.20 1.00x 2026-11-11 12:41 UTC

[P90 | Desert DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-minimal-wear) [kitkat&](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kitkat%26) $0.20 $0.22 1.10x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[P90 | Desert DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-desert-ddpat-minimal-wear) [kitkat&](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kitkat%26) $0.20 $0.22 1.10x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[P250 | Drought (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-drought-factory-new) [kitkat&](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kitkat%26) $0.20 $0.33 1.65x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[MP7 | Short Ochre (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-short-ochre-factory-new) [kitkat&](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kitkat%26) $0.20 $0.05 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[Nova | Mandrel (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-mandrel-factory-new) [kitkat&](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kitkat%26) $0.20 $0.06 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Inlay (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-factory-new) [kitkat&](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kitkat%26) $0.20 $0.24 1.20x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Inlay (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-inlay-factory-new) [kitkat&](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kitkat%26) $0.20 $0.24 1.20x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.20 | 89.03% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.20 | 94.00% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed consumer 15.1% Consumer Grade 7.9% Common 65.3% SMGs 1.3% grey 3.5% #b0c3d9 3.5% #777777 3.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.03 on average: an expected loss of $10.97 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt