--- title: "Control case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Control ($21.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.66% from 34 items with odds, observed 83.41% over 35 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/control rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Control](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/control) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Control A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/control?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/control?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/control) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/control?window=all) Price · $21.99 Advertised RTP · 89.66% · EV $19.72 from 34 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.41% · 35 openings, odds method Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 35 openings · below min 30 days · 35 openings · below min since tracking started · 35 openings · below min -0.5% 159.0% 318.5% **Small sample.** 35 openings and 9.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/control?window=24h) | 1 | 109.55% ±208.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/control?window=7d) | 35 | 83.41% ±35.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/control) | 35 | 83.41% ±35.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/control?window=all) | 35 | 83.41% ±35.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 65 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45,455 | $868 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,641 | $689 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 20,833 | $642 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 9,346 | $545 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 2,985 | $287 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,706 | $260 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-field-tested) | 1 in 855 | $209 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-minimal-wear) | 1 in 228 | $109 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $86.40 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-field-tested) | 1 in 110 | $83.16 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [FAMAS \| Prime Conspiracy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-prime-conspiracy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $82.82 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 1 in 98 | $74.36 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Berries And Cherries (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-berries-and-cherries-factory-new) | 1 in 93 | $73.55 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-minimal-wear) | 1 in 94 | $72.71 | 3.9% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-field-tested) | 1 in 92 | $70.47 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 35 | $37.70 | 5.5% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.07× | | [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $24.09 | 9.8% | 5 | 5.2 | 0.96× | | [Desert Eagle \| The Bronze (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-bronze-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $21.08 | 8.1% | 8 | 4.9 | 1.62× | | [P2000 \| Dispatch (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $19.25 | 4.5% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× | | [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $17.83 | 4.2% | 7 | 3.0 | 2.34× | | [M4A4 \| Global Offensive (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $17.38 | 4.0% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | | [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $14.98 | 3.5% | 7 | 3.0 | 2.34× | | [SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $14.93 | 3.5% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [P2000 \| Dispatch (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $14.74 | 3.4% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× | | [P2000 \| Dispatch (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $13.74 | 3.2% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.67× | | [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $12.89 | 3.0% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $12.55 | 2.9% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [SCAR-20 \| Magna Carta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $12.39 | 2.9% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $10.58 | 2.5% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [P250 \| Forest Night (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-forest-night-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $5.62 | 1.3% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.34× | | [Dual Berettas \| Switch Board (Factory New) weapon · Industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-switch-board-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $4.82 | 1.1% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $4.51 | 1.1% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [MP5-SD \| Nitro (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-nitro-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.85 | 0.7% | 1 | 3.0 | 0.33× | | [MAG-7 \| Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear) weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-carbon-fiber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $2.22 | 0.5% | 3 | 3.0 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/control/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=control) [SSG 08 | Threat Detected (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-factory-new) [Aleksey Warnov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksey%20Warnov) $21.99 $24.09 1.10x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [P2000 | Dispatch (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-factory-new) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $21.99 $19.25 0.88x 2026-11-10 11:50 UTC [SSG 08 | Threat Detected (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-threat-detected-minimal-wear) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $21.99 $14.98 0.68x 2026-11-10 11:50 UTC [Desert Eagle | The Bronze (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-the-bronze-factory-new) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $21.99 $21.08 0.96x 2026-11-10 11:50 UTC [SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-minimal-wear) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $21.99 $12.39 0.56x 2026-11-10 11:50 UTC [P2000 | Dispatch (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-field-tested) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $21.99 $13.74 0.62x 2026-11-10 11:50 UTC [P2000 | Dispatch (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-dispatch-minimal-wear) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $21.99 $14.74 0.67x 2026-11-10 11:50 UTC [SCAR-20 | Magna Carta (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-magna-carta-factory-new) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $21.99 $12.89 0.59x 2026-11-10 11:50 UTC [M4A4 | Global Offensive (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-global-offensive-minimal-wear) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $21.99 $17.83 0.81x 2026-11-10 11:49 UTC [UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-minimal-wear) [Владимир Коваленко](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%92%D0%BB%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%B8%D1%80%20%D0%9A%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%BE) $21.99 $72.71 3.31x 2026-11-10 11:49 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $21.99 | 89.66% | 34 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $21.99 | 94.00% | 34 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.0% classified 0.2% restricted 3.7% violet 1.8% #8847ff 2.3% blue 7.5% Rare 21.8% light blue 7.6% Mil Spec Grade 13.8% mil spec 9.2% #4b69ff 4.6% industrial 4.6% Consumer Grade 4.6% Industrial 4.6% gray 4.6% Uncommon 4.6% Industrial Grade 4.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.66 on average: an expected loss of $10.34 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt