--- title: "Covert case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Covert ($108.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.74% from 38 items with odds, observed 71.62% over 51 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/covert rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Covert](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/covert) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Covert A case on CSGORUN (rarity2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/covert?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/covert?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/covert) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/covert?window=all) Price · $108.99 Advertised RTP · 91.74% · EV $99.99 from 38 items Observed RTP, 30d · 71.62% · 51 openings, odds method Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 54.2% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 51 openings · below min 30 days · 51 openings · below min since tracking started · 51 openings · below min 3.5% 72.2% 141.0% **Small sample.** 51 openings and 15.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/covert?window=24h) | 6 | 72.15% ±68.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/covert?window=7d) | 51 | 71.62% ±23.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/covert) | 51 | 71.62% ±23.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/covert?window=all) | 51 | 71.62% ±23.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 77 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Medusa (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $5,910 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200,000 | $4,890 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-minimal-wear) | 1 in 62,500 | $3,252 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 34,483 | $2,618 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 15,152 | $2,122 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 6,135 | $1,513 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 3,021 | $1,163 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,385 | $911 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 740 | $776 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 358 | $588 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 214 | $496 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $416 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 97 | $332 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $275 | 4.0% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.88× | | [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $222 | 4.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $192 | 5.3% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-royal-paladin-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $159 | 5.9% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.40× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-scorched-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $154 | 7.0% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.86× | | [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $140 | 8.2% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.12× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $127 | 8.8% | 2 | 5.3 | 0.38× | | [★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $118 | 9.6% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.64× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $118 | 9.0% | 11 | 5.9 | 1.88× | | [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $92.44 | 3.1% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $85.79 | 2.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $71.01 | 2.4% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $66.63 | 2.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.15× | | [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $56.82 | 1.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $49.97 | 1.7% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.53× | | [AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $45.86 | 1.6% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× | | [M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-in-living-color-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $38.80 | 1.3% | 5 | 2.6 | 1.92× | | [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $34.66 | 1.2% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $31.86 | 1.1% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [M4A4 \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $29.64 | 1.0% | 8 | 2.6 | 3.07× | | [M4A4 \| The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-the-battlestar-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $29.33 | 1.0% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.53× | | [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $28.08 | 1.0% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $27.92 | 0.9% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× | | [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 30 | $24.78 | 0.8% | 2 | 2.6 | 0.77× | | [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) | 1 in 30 | $14.72 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.54× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/covert/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=covert) [M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desert-strike-field-tested) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $109 $29.64 0.27x 2026-11-11 13:25 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $109 $118 1.08x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $109 $45.86 0.42x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [AK-47 | B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) [AlanToms](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/AlanToms) $109 $140 1.29x 2026-11-10 21:30 UTC [AWP | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-neo-noir-minimal-wear) [SYBIROOS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/SYBIROOS) $109 $45.86 0.42x 2026-11-10 20:52 UTC [MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-factory-new) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $109 $92.44 0.85x 2026-11-10 18:34 UTC [Glock-18 | Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $109 $28.08 0.26x 2026-11-10 12:48 UTC [MP9 | Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-starlight-protector-minimal-wear) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $109 $66.63 0.61x 2026-11-10 12:48 UTC [M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-minimal-wear) [FullFaza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/FullFaza) $109 $275 2.52x 2026-11-10 12:47 UTC [AK-47 | Aphrodite (Field-Tested) weapon · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-field-tested) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $109 $14.72 0.14x 2026-11-09 17:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $109 | 91.74% | 38 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $109 | 94.00% | 38 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 35.1% knifes 0.0% sunny 0.8% legendary 0.0% #ffd700 0.0% red 30.0% covert knife 4.5% Ancient 26.1% #eb4b4b 3.4% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.74 on average: an expected loss of $8.26 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt