---
title: "Crash case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Crash ($1.48) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.86% from 42 items with odds, observed 92.43% over 883 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crash
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:06Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Crash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crash)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Crash

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crash?window=all)

Price · $1.48

Advertised RTP · 93.86% · EV $1.39 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.43% · 883 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 11 openings · below min

7 days · 92.78% ±21.54 770 openings

30 days · 92.43% ±20.10 883 openings

since tracking started · 92.43% ±20.10 883 openings

-0.5% 174.0% 348.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crash?window=24h) | 11 | 167.57% ±180.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crash?window=7d) | 770 | 92.78% ±21.5 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crash) | 883 | 92.43% ±20.1 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crash?window=all) | 883 | 92.43% ±20.1 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 883 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3,282 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,382 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,253 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,079 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,054 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $842 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $415 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $372 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $287 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Pillow Punchers (Battle-Scarred) gloves · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-pillow-punchers-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500,000 | $268 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Garden (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-garden-field-tested) | 1 in 200,000 | $183 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Frosty (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-frosty-well-worn) | 1 in 166,667 | $165 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 62,500 | $82.08 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 55,556 | $76.11 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 26,316 | $50.59 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,065 | $24.78 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,937 | $23.64 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 787 | $13.18 | 1.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) | 1 in 712 | $12.43 | 1.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.61× |
| [P250 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 424 | $10.60 | 1.8% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 140 | $6.27 | 3.2% | 6 | 6.3 | 0.95× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 116 | $5.78 | 3.6% | 8 | 7.6 | 1.05× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-battle-scarred) | 1 in 104 | $5.36 | 3.7% | 8 | 8.5 | 0.95× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66 | $4.06 | 4.4% | 18 | 13.3 | 1.35× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $3.78 | 4.6% | 15 | 14.8 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Crossfade (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-crossfade-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $3.59 | 4.4% | 20 | 15.2 | 1.32× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $2.78 | 5.5% | 26 | 24.2 | 1.08× |
| [MAG-7 \| Praetorian (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-praetorian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $2.05 | 7.0% | 37 | 41.6 | 0.89× |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.37 | 7.1% | 66 | 63.4 | 1.04× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Charged Up (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $1.28 | 6.6% | 62 | 63.4 | 0.98× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.18 | 6.1% | 59 | 63.2 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $1.17 | 5.8% | 55 | 61.3 | 0.90× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $1.15 | 5.8% | 50 | 61.8 | 0.81× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hydro-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $1.13 | 5.5% | 74 | 60.1 | 1.23× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-light-rail-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $0.99 | 4.7% | 50 | 58.2 | 0.86× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $0.99 | 4.8% | 65 | 59.6 | 1.09× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $0.95 | 4.5% | 56 | 58.4 | 0.96× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $0.59 | 2.3% | 42 | 47.8 | 0.88× |
| [P90 \| Wave Breaker (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $0.44 | 1.5% | 49 | 42.8 | 1.14× |
| [Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-red-quartz-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $0.38 | 1.3% | 46 | 40.5 | 1.14× |
| [SSG 08 \| Zeno (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-zeno-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $0.28 | 0.8% | 42 | 37.0 | 1.13× |
| [UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Battle-Scarred) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-warm-blooded-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $0.15 | 0.4% | 26 | 29.1 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/crash/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=crash)

[Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-charged-up-battle-scarred) [Aim6n](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aim6n) $1.48 $1.28 0.86x 2026-11-11 14:57 UTC

[UMP-45 | Wild Child (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-battle-scarred) [905033152](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/905033152) $1.48 $2.78 1.88x 2026-11-11 12:07 UTC

[USP-S | Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) [Kemurikage](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Kemurikage) $1.48 $12.43 8.40x 2026-11-11 09:40 UTC

[FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) [cibis0255](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cibis0255) $1.48 $1.37 0.93x 2026-11-11 08:53 UTC

[XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) [MuRaMiR^=^](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/MuRaMiR%5E%3D%5E) $1.48 $0.99 0.67x 2026-11-11 08:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-factory-new) [Prynik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Prynik) $1.48 $1.17 0.79x 2026-11-11 05:20 UTC

[M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.48 $3.78 2.55x 2026-11-10 18:48 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Bronze Deco (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-bronze-deco-battle-scarred) [karabtw](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/karabtw) $1.48 $0.59 0.40x 2026-11-10 18:48 UTC

[Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-coral-bloom-factory-new) [sixxxsevvenqjkee](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/sixxxsevvenqjkee) $1.48 $1.17 0.79x 2026-11-10 18:40 UTC

[P90 | Wave Breaker (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-wave-breaker-well-worn) [Александр Гулеватый](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%90%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%BA%D1%81%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B4%D1%80%20%D0%93%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%82%D1%8B%D0%B9) $1.48 $0.44 0.30x 2026-11-10 17:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.48 | 93.86% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.48 | 95.23% | 42 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% classified 1.3% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% sunny 0.0% Immortal 0.0% rare 0.7% gold 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% mil spec 6.8% pink 3.6% #d32ee6 1.5% Legendary 1.7% #4b69ff 14.3% restricted 11.3% violet 32.5% blue 6.9% uncommon 7.0% #8847ff 4.8% Rare 4.2% milspec 3.3% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.86 on average: an expected loss of $6.14 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt