---
title: "Crimsonweb case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Crimsonweb ($339.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.67% from 30 items with odds, observed 17.65% over 5 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crimsonweb
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Crimsonweb](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crimsonweb)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Crimsonweb

A case on CSGORUN (patterns2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crimsonweb?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crimsonweb?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crimsonweb) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crimsonweb?window=all)

Price · $339.99

Advertised RTP · 91.67% · EV $311.67 from 30 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 17.65% · 5 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 55.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 5 openings · below min

30 days · 5 openings · below min

since tracking started · 5 openings · below min

-0.5% 46.0% 92.5%

**Small sample.** 5 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crimsonweb?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crimsonweb?window=7d) | 5 | 17.65% ±72.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crimsonweb) | 5 | 17.65% ±72.2 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/crimsonweb?window=all) | 5 | 17.65% ±72.2 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 30 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 6,289 | $4,890 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $4,689 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 419 | $1,982 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 239 | $1,616 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 131 | $1,232 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $1,161 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 144 | $1,150 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 101 | $930 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 68 | $820 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $711 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $680 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 28 | $551 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $531 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $464 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $405 | 8.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $382 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $340 | 8.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $283 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $234 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $218 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $174 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $156 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $128 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $117 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $89.17 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $86.47 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $70.96 | 1.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $69.53 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $65.08 | 0.9% | 3 | 0.2 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $33.76 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.2 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/crimsonweb/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=crimsonweb)

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) [skertop](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/skertop) $340 $65.08 0.19x 2026-11-09 13:15 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [skertop](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/skertop) $340 $33.76 0.10x 2026-11-09 13:15 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $340 $65.08 0.19x 2026-11-09 12:47 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $340 $65.08 0.19x 2026-11-06 19:08 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [𝗞𝗨$𝗛𝗡𝗜𝗥](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%F0%9D%97%9E%F0%9D%97%A8%24%F0%9D%97%9B%F0%9D%97%A1%F0%9D%97%9C%F0%9D%97%A5) $340 $70.96 0.21x 2026-11-06 19:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $340 | 91.67% | 30 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $340 | 94.00% | 30 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed knifes 1.0% covert 74.6% Covert 0.2% legendary 6.3% extraordinary 5.0% gold 4.3% restricted 8.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.67 on average: an expected loss of $8.33 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt