---
title: "Cryptoautumn case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Cryptoautumn ($48.12) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 93.99% from 49 items with odds, observed 91.33% over 90 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cryptoautumn
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Cryptoautumn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cryptoautumn)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Cryptoautumn

A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cryptoautumn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cryptoautumn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cryptoautumn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cryptoautumn?window=all)

Price · $48.12

Advertised RTP · 93.99% · EV $45.23 from 49 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.33% · 90 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 86 openings · below min

30 days · 90 openings · below min

since tracking started · 90 openings · below min

69.0% 92.8% 116.5%

**Small sample.** 90 openings and 20.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cryptoautumn?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cryptoautumn?window=7d) | 86 | 93.79% ±22.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cryptoautumn) | 90 | 91.33% ±21.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cryptoautumn?window=all) | 90 | 91.33% ±21.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $8,522 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 166,667 | $3,132 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 83,333 | $2,218 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 71,429 | $2,122 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 66,667 | $2,024 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $1,888 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,696 | $1,009 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 8,696 | $893 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-well-worn) | 1 in 2,247 | $613 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,020 | $590 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 1,053 | $366 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $332 | 1.2% | 2 | 0.2 | — |
| [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-minimal-wear) | 1 in 663 | $332 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 461 | $255 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-minimal-wear) | 1 in 263 | $240 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-field-tested) | 1 in 297 | $233 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-field-tested) | 1 in 249 | $220 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Hypnotic (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hypnotic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 145 | $164 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-factory-new) | 1 in 127 | $163 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 136 | $160 | 2.6% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-minimal-wear) | 1 in 76 | $131 | 3.8% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 98 | $123 | 2.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-jungle-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 58 | $109 | 4.1% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.29× |
| [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $95.71 | 4.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.14× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $87.14 | 3.9% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.65× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $76.64 | 2.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Phoenix Blacklight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-phoenix-blacklight-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $69.33 | 4.9% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $68.54 | 3.3% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-gold-brick-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $58.28 | 4.4% | 5 | 3.1 | 1.61× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-jungle-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $53.05 | 4.8% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.08× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $43.48 | 4.8% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $42.55 | 4.7% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.66× |
| [AUG \| Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $41.62 | 4.4% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.40× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $37.97 | 4.0% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $35.86 | 3.8% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $35.29 | 3.7% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.42× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $28.08 | 2.8% | 1 | 4.1 | 0.24× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 23 | $26.67 | 2.6% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $25.48 | 2.5% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $17.71 | 1.5% | 4 | 3.5 | 1.13× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $16.17 | 1.3% | 7 | 3.3 | 2.09× |
| [MP9 \| Green Plaid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-green-plaid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $16.04 | 1.2% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) | 1 in 27 | $12.62 | 1.0% | 5 | 3.3 | 1.51× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Chemical Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-chemical-green-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $12.06 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.0 | 0.67× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 28 | $11.94 | 1.0% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [MAG-7 \| Seabird (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-seabird-factory-new) | 1 in 31 | $6.64 | 0.5% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.38× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $3.14 | 0.2% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $1.07 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× |
| [MP5-SD \| Gold Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-well-worn) | 1 in 88 | $0.07 | 0.0% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.97× |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/cryptoautumn/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=cryptoautumn)

[MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-gold-leaf-well-worn) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $48.12 $0.07 0.00x 2026-11-08 19:26 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) [Aleksoda](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Aleksoda) $48.12 $35.29 0.73x 2026-11-08 19:26 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Emerald (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-emerald-factory-new) [나丩丁仨尸 777](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%EB%82%98%E4%B8%A9%E4%B8%81%E4%BB%A8%E5%B0%B8%20777) $48.12 $25.48 0.53x 2026-11-05 19:33 UTC

[AWP | LongDog (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-minimal-wear) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $50.70 $131 2.57x 2026-11-05 16:24 UTC

[P90 | Emerald Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-field-tested) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $50.70 $95.71 1.89x 2026-11-05 16:24 UTC

[SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $50.70 $16.17 0.32x 2026-11-05 16:24 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $50.70 $332 6.54x 2026-11-05 16:24 UTC

[MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $50.70 $1.07 0.02x 2026-11-05 16:24 UTC

[USP-S | Para Green (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $50.70 $35.29 0.70x 2026-11-05 16:24 UTC

[AUG | Carved Jade (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-carved-jade-factory-new) [advJONNY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/advJONNY) $50.70 $41.62 0.82x 2026-11-05 16:24 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $48.12 | 93.99% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $50.70 | 89.21% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $50.70 | 91.98% | 49 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.7% extraordinary 0.0% sunny 0.0% classified 20.6% restricted 17.3% Mythical 0.2% Ancient 0.7% rare 6.1% industrial 11.8% Mil Spec Grade 1.6% mil spec 10.2% Consumer Grade 7.5% Rare 4.8% #4b69ff 4.8% red 4.6% consumer 6.9% blue 1.1% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 94.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.99 on average: an expected loss of $6.01 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt