--- title: "Cs 20 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cs 20 ($4.49) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.42% from 36 items with odds, observed 83.56% over 41 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cs20 rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Cs 20](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cs20) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Cs 20 A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cs20?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cs20?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cs20) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cs20?window=all) Price · $4.49 Advertised RTP · 90.42% · EV $4.06 from 36 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.56% · 41 openings, sample method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 30.9% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 41 openings · below min 30 days · 41 openings · below min since tracking started · 41 openings · below min -0.5% 91.8% 184.0% **Small sample.** 41 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cs20?window=24h) | 2 | 34.19% ±149.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cs20?window=7d) | 41 | 83.56% ±12.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cs20) | 41 | 83.56% ±12.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/cs20?window=all) | 41 | 83.56% ±12.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1,161 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Factory New) knife · knifes](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 166,667 | $408 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125,000 | $334 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 55,556 | $216 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 19,608 | $138 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 9,524 | $103 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-forest-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,149 | $78.48 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 2,247 | $62.73 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 1,305 | $45.83 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 989 | $44.95 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 784 | $40.83 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 453 | $33.97 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-field-tested) | 1 in 345 | $30.25 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $11.79 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $9.20 | 5.6% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Sacrifice (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sacrifice-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $7.07 | 6.6% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $6.92 | 6.5% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [P250 \| Inferno (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-factory-new) | 1 in 21 | $5.65 | 6.7% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.52× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $5.24 | 8.9% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.78× | | [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $4.83 | 7.7% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.13× | | [MP5-SD \| Agent (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $4.78 | 9.1% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $4.40 | 9.1% | 6 | 3.4 | 1.74× | | [FAMAS \| Decommissioned (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-decommissioned-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $4.15 | 3.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.29× | | [P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $4.09 | 3.8% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.58× | | [AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $3.73 | 3.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $3.17 | 3.0% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Tec-9 \| Flash Out (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $2.15 | 2.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.29× | | [M249 \| Aztec (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $2.00 | 1.9% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.94× | | [MP5-SD \| Agent (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.46 | 1.4% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-classic-crate-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.39 | 1.3% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.10 | 1.0% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.29× | | [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $1.02 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.92 | 0.9% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | | [M249 \| Aztec (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-aztec-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $0.84 | 0.8% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× | | [Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.78 | 0.7% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.58× | | [MP5-SD \| Agent (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $0.58 | 0.5% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.65× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/cs20/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=cs20) [Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) [QQHA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/QQHA) $4.49 $2.15 0.48x 2026-11-11 11:13 UTC [P250 | Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) [∆♣️JOKER♥️∆](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E2%88%86%E2%99%A3%EF%B8%8FJOKER%E2%99%A5%EF%B8%8F%E2%88%86) $4.49 $0.92 0.20x 2026-11-10 23:01 UTC [MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-factory-new) [еблодав 3000](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B2%203000) $4.49 $4.78 1.06x 2026-11-09 19:03 UTC [Tec-9 | Flash Out (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-flash-out-factory-new) [еблодав 3000](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B2%203000) $4.49 $2.15 0.48x 2026-11-09 19:03 UTC [Five-SeveN | Buddy (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-buddy-minimal-wear) [еблодав 3000](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B2%203000) $4.49 $1.10 0.24x 2026-11-09 19:03 UTC [MP5-SD | Agent (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-agent-field-tested) [еблодав 3000](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B2%203000) $4.49 $0.58 0.13x 2026-11-09 19:03 UTC [AUG | Death by Puppy (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-death-by-puppy-field-tested) [еблодав 3000](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%B5%D0%B1%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0%D0%B2%203000) $4.49 $3.73 0.83x 2026-11-09 19:03 UTC [Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-elite-1-6-factory-new) [Soul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Soul) $4.49 $0.78 0.17x 2026-11-09 07:15 UTC [P90 | Nostalgia (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-nostalgia-field-tested) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $4.49 $4.45 0.99x 2026-11-05 20:00 UTC [UMP-45 | Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) [Невесомость😺](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B5%D0%B2%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D1%8C%F0%9F%98%BA) $4.49 $5.31 1.18x 2026-11-05 20:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $4.49 | 90.42% | 36 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $4.49 | 94.00% | 36 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% knifes 0.0% covert knife 0.1% classified 24.2% mil spec 15.1% restricted 35.2% Legendary 6.9% violet 6.5% Mythical 7.6% Rare 3.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.42 on average: an expected loss of $9.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt