--- title: "Daggers case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Daggers ($59.99) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 92.48% from 29 items with odds, observed 88.19% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daggers rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Daggers](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daggers) # [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Daggers A case on CSGORUN (knives2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daggers?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daggers?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daggers) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daggers?window=all) Price · $59.99 Advertised RTP · 92.48% · EV $55.48 from 29 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.19% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 0.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 35.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 1 openings · below min 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 81.3% 163.0% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 6.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daggers?window=24h) | 1 | 70.65% ±91.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daggers?window=7d) | 18 | 88.19% ±21.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daggers) | 18 | 88.19% ±21.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daggers?window=all) | 18 | 88.19% ±21.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,101 | $606 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 6,250 | $531 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 2,008 | $380 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,838 | $363 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 478 | $275 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear) | 1 in 405 | $231 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 257 | $208 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 122 | $140 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 180 | $137 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 84 | $111 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 60 | $102 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $89.25 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $83.19 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $72.39 | 5.8% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 24 | $68.44 | 5.2% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $67.33 | 6.1% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18 | $59.27 | 6.0% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $54.57 | 5.8% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.69× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $47.78 | 5.1% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $46.32 | 4.9% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $44.99 | 4.8% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $44.47 | 4.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $43.93 | 4.7% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $42.38 | 4.5% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $41.25 | 4.4% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $40.84 | 4.3% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $40.45 | 4.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $40.04 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $39.70 | 4.2% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/daggers/show`, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=daggers) [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [你是同性恋](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%E4%BD%A0%E6%98%AF%E5%90%8C%E6%80%A7%E6%81%8B) $59.99 $42.38 0.71x 2026-11-11 11:06 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $59.99 $43.93 0.73x 2026-11-10 11:47 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $59.99 $54.57 0.91x 2026-11-10 11:46 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $59.99 $54.57 0.91x 2026-11-10 11:46 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-minimal-wear) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $59.99 $68.44 1.14x 2026-11-10 11:46 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Minimal Wear) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-minimal-wear) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $59.99 $42.38 0.71x 2026-11-10 11:46 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-autotronic-minimal-wear) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $59.99 $54.57 0.91x 2026-11-10 11:46 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Damascus Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-damascus-steel-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $59.99 $44.47 0.74x 2026-11-10 11:46 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-scorched-field-tested) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $59.99 $46.32 0.77x 2026-11-10 11:46 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-bright-water-factory-new) [Тимофей Каплиёв](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%A2%D0%B8%D0%BC%D0%BE%D1%84%D0%B5%D0%B9%20%D0%9A%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%BB%D0%B8%D1%91%D0%B2) $59.99 $44.99 0.75x 2026-11-10 11:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $59.99 | 92.48% | 29 | | 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $59.99 | 94.00% | 29 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 61.8% Covert 6.1% gold 20.4% Immortal 5.9% covert knife 5.9% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.48 on average: an expected loss of $7.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt