---
title: "Daily 1 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Daily 1 ($0.15) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 71.19% from 28 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily1
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Daily 1](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily1)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Daily 1

A case on CSGORUN (daily), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily1?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily1?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily1) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily1?window=all)

Price · $0.15

Advertised RTP · 71.19% · EV $0.11 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily1?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily1?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily1) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily1?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-stained-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $55.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Duct Tape (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-duct-tape-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $48.43 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $21.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 500,000 | $3.69 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $3.55 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 500,000 | $2.98 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Virus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2.91 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-duality-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500,000 | $2.88 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-stone-cold-field-tested) | 1 in 14,085 | $2.47 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-lead-conduit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38,462 | $2.39 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mulberry (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mulberry-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $2.10 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-factory-new) | 1 in 55,556 | $1.63 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $1.12 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-factory-new) | 1 in 4,608 | $1.10 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Grim (Factory New) weapon · Mil Spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $1.08 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 493 | $1.05 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-night-terror-field-tested) | 1 in 2,793 | $1.01 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Rising Sun (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-rising-sun-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $0.87 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 255 | $0.68 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Well-Worn) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $0.38 | 18.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-field-tested) | 10.4% | $0.22 | 21.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Modest Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-modest-threat-battle-scarred) | 11.6% | $0.21 | 22.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Steel Work (Factory New) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-steel-work-factory-new) | 1 in 48 | $0.15 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-field-tested) | 12.2% | $0.10 | 11.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| exit \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-exit-shanghai-2024) | 13.9% | $0.04 | 5.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Gum Wall Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-gum-wall-camo-minimal-wear) | 12.8% | $0.04 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| sjuush \| Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sjuush-shanghai-2024) | 16.0% | $0.03 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sticker \| Passion UA \| Shanghai 2024 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-passion-ua-shanghai-2024) | 15.1% | $0.02 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/daily1/show`, 6 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=daily1)

[Sticker | Passion UA | Shanghai 2024 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-passion-ua-shanghai-2024) [Подрочил на мячик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%BB%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%BC%D1%8F%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.15 $0.02 0.13x 2026-11-06 11:44 UTC

[Sticker | sjuush | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sjuush-shanghai-2024) [Foqi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Foqi) $0.15 $0.03 0.20x 2026-11-06 11:31 UTC

[Sticker | sjuush | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sjuush-shanghai-2024) [:)](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%3A%29) $0.15 $0.03 0.20x 2026-11-06 11:31 UTC

[Sticker | sjuush | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sjuush-shanghai-2024) [Гокот Разыол](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%93%D0%BE%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%82%20%D0%A0%D0%B0%D0%B7%D1%8B%D0%BE%D0%BB) $0.15 $0.03 0.20x 2026-11-06 11:30 UTC

[Sticker | sjuush | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sjuush-shanghai-2024) [trif0n0v](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/trif0n0v) $0.15 $0.03 0.20x 2026-11-06 11:30 UTC

[Sticker | Passion UA | Shanghai 2024 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-passion-ua-shanghai-2024) [asd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/asd) $0.15 $0.02 0.13x 2026-11-06 11:30 UTC

[Sticker | sjuush | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sjuush-shanghai-2024) [ради нее 240км/ч](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%20%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%B5%20240%D0%BA%D0%BC%2F%D1%87) $0.15 $0.03 0.20x 2026-11-06 11:29 UTC

[Sticker | Passion UA | Shanghai 2024 sticker](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-passion-ua-shanghai-2024) [GIUSEPPE ZANOTTI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GIUSEPPE%20ZANOTTI) $0.15 $0.02 0.13x 2026-11-06 11:28 UTC

[Sticker | sjuush | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sjuush-shanghai-2024) [Crazy Kuvi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Crazy%20Kuvi) $0.15 $0.03 0.20x 2026-11-06 11:28 UTC

[Sticker | sjuush | Shanghai 2024 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-sjuush-shanghai-2024) [8 de mayo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/8%20de%20mayo) $0.15 $0.03 0.20x 2026-11-06 11:28 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.15 | 71.19% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.15 | 63.14% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 5.2% covert knife 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% pink 0.0% blue 12.6% restricted 0.0% #4b69ff 10.4% violet 0.0% #8847ff 0.0% Mil Spec 0.0% classified 0.2% Mythical 0.0% mil spec 11.6% blueLight 2.1% Rare 29.9% #5e98d9 12.8% other 15.1%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 71.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $71.19 on average: an expected loss of $28.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt