---
title: "Daily 10 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Daily 10 ($36.84) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 68.93% from 28 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily10
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Daily 10](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily10)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Daily 10

A case on CSGORUN (daily), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily10?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily10?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily10) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily10?window=all)

Price · $36.84

Advertised RTP · 68.93% · EV $25.39 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily10?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily10?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily10) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily10?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,856 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $5,029 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250,000 | $4,251 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-field-tested) | 1 in 500,000 | $3,916 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $2,208 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 43,478 | $2,093 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 62,500 | $1,874 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $1,058 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 1,534 | $703 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 901 | $582 | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 3,106 | $545 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| CMYK (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-cmyk-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $544 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 258 | $427 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 7,576 | $383 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 115 | $332 | 11.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Panthera onca (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-panthera-onca-factory-new) | 1 in 25,641 | $307 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 188 | $268 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 68 | $131 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $65.80 | 7.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $54.97 | 8.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-temukau-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $49.22 | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Latte Rush (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-latte-rush-minimal-wear) | 1 in 46 | $28.29 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-well-worn) | 13.8% | $25.78 | 14.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $18.04 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 10 | $9.61 | 3.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 15.2% | $8.95 | 5.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-justice-minimal-wear) | 16.0% | $6.89 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) | 19.9% | $1.53 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/daily10/show`, 6 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=daily10)

[Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) [твоя мама](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%8F%20%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B0) $36.84 $1.53 0.04x 2026-11-05 20:17 UTC

[Nova | Wurst Hölle (Factory New) weapon · milspec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wurst-holle-factory-new) [твоя мама](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%8F%20%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B0) $36.84 $1.53 0.04x 2026-11-04 20:12 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $36.84 | 68.93% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $36.84 | 69.48% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.2% contraband 0.0% epic 0.5% legendary 0.9% classified 16.0% #d32ee6 0.0% extraordinary 1.5% Immortal 2.8% pink 17.3% red 13.8% rare 7.2% #8847ff 9.8% milspec 19.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 68.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $68.93 on average: an expected loss of $31.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt