---
title: "Daily 3 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Daily 3 ($0.44) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 69.76% from 28 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily3
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Daily 3](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily3)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Daily 3

A case on CSGORUN (daily), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily3?window=all)

Price · $0.44

Advertised RTP · 69.76% · EV $0.31 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 4.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 73.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily3?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily3?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily3) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily3?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $233 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 333,333 | $81.76 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers) | 1 in 38,462 | $74.22 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 66,667 | $70.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Modern Hunter (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-modern-hunter-battle-scarred) | 1 in 32,258 | $52.81 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) | 1 in 26,316 | $45.29 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| LongDog (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-longdog-battle-scarred) | 1 in 111,111 | $40.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,346 | $27.80 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $26.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,493 | $25.15 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-shinobu-factory-new) | 1 in 12,346 | $21.05 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Factory New) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-factory-new) | 1 in 10,638 | $16.02 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,661 | $6.13 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-well-worn) | 1 in 3,676 | $5.93 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-well-worn) | 1 in 5,917 | $5.33 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wintergreen (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wintergreen-factory-new) | 1 in 2,387 | $3.93 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-factory-new) | 1 in 867 | $3.29 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 1,972 | $2.55 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 598 | $1.17 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-toy-soldier-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $1.04 | 25.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Control (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-control-minimal-wear) | 1 in 55 | $0.85 | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-battle-scarred) | 1 in 93 | $0.64 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Serpent Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-serpent-strike-well-worn) | 10.7% | $0.63 | 21.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $0.46 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) | 15.3% | $0.34 | 17.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Coral Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coral-halftone-field-tested) | 14.8% | $0.15 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-minimal-wear) | 16.2% | $0.06 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-battle-scarred) | 27.3% | $0.01 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/daily3/show`, 6 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=daily3)

[Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-sour-grapes-minimal-wear) [borov\_the\_F](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/borov_the_F) $0.44 $0.06 0.14x 2026-11-06 12:29 UTC

[Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-battle-scarred) [trif0n0v](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/trif0n0v) $0.44 $0.01 0.02x 2026-11-06 11:30 UTC

[Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-battle-scarred) [asd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/asd) $0.44 $0.01 0.02x 2026-11-06 11:30 UTC

[P2000 | Coral Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coral-halftone-field-tested) [GIUSEPPE ZANOTTI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GIUSEPPE%20ZANOTTI) $0.44 $0.15 0.34x 2026-11-06 11:29 UTC

[Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-battle-scarred) [Подрочил на мячик](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9F%D0%BE%D0%B4%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%BB%20%D0%BD%D0%B0%20%D0%BC%D1%8F%D1%87%D0%B8%D0%BA) $0.44 $0.01 0.02x 2026-11-06 11:29 UTC

[P2000 | Coral Halftone (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coral-halftone-field-tested) [Crazy Kuvi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Crazy%20Kuvi) $0.44 $0.15 0.34x 2026-11-06 11:28 UTC

[Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-battle-scarred) [8 de mayo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/8%20de%20mayo) $0.44 $0.01 0.02x 2026-11-06 11:28 UTC

[Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-battle-scarred) [asd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/asd) $0.44 $0.01 0.02x 2026-11-06 11:27 UTC

[Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-battle-scarred) [пепе ватафа](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BF%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%B5%20%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%84%D0%B0) $0.44 $0.01 0.02x 2026-11-06 11:26 UTC

[Tec-9 | Raw Ceramic (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-raw-ceramic-battle-scarred) [Volkodav](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Volkodav) $0.44 $0.01 0.02x 2026-11-06 11:24 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.44 | 69.76% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed sunny 0.0% gold 0.0% covert 0.0% restricted 18.3% extraordinary 0.0% Ancient 0.0% red 0.0% rare 0.0% Legendary 0.0% violet 15.4% #d32ce6 0.0% blue 4.6% Mythical 2.0% uncommon 0.2% #8847ff 1.1% industrial 31.0% #b0c3d9 27.3%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 69.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $69.76 on average: an expected loss of $30.24 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt