---
title: "Daily 4 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Daily 4 ($1.01) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 62.64% from 28 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily4
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:13Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Daily 4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily4)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Daily 4

A case on CSGORUN (daily), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily4?window=all)

Price · $1.01

Advertised RTP · 62.64% · EV $0.63 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 3.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily4?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily4?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily4) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily4?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-battle-scarred) | 1 in 500,000 | $476 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $442 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250,000 | $307 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250,000 | $251 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 142,857 | $237 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $165 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $113 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $94.58 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Battle-Scarred) gloves · #eb4b4b](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76,923 | $90.16 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Freehand (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-freehand-factory-new) | 1 in 111,111 | $82.32 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76,923 | $40.42 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gold-toof-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45,455 | $28.44 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAC-10 \| Toybox (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-toybox-battle-scarred) | 1 in 9,091 | $15.69 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 18,868 | $12.56 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-well-worn) | 1 in 752 | $8.94 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-food-chain-minimal-wear) | 1 in 150 | $6.60 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 429 | $6.59 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-factory-new) | 1 in 3,623 | $5.13 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Visions (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $3.14 | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $2.81 | 25.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [FAMAS \| Yeti Camo (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-yeti-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 54 | $1.37 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $1.14 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P250 \| Inferno (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-inferno-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $0.92 | 9.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Polished Malachite (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-polished-malachite-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.69 | 9.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-amber-fade-field-tested) | 10.2% | $0.48 | 7.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New) weapon · #5e98d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-varicamo-grey-factory-new) | 1 in 26 | $0.35 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-battle-scarred) | 22.0% | $0.16 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) | 33.9% | $0.06 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/daily4/show`, 6 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=daily4)

[Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-battle-scarred) [borov\_the\_F](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/borov_the_F) $1.01 $0.16 0.16x 2026-11-06 12:29 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-battle-scarred) [asd](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/asd) $1.01 $0.16 0.16x 2026-11-06 11:30 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [cybernetus](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/cybernetus) $1.01 $0.06 0.06x 2026-11-06 11:29 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [GIUSEPPE ZANOTTI](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/GIUSEPPE%20ZANOTTI) $1.01 $0.06 0.06x 2026-11-06 11:29 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [Crazy Kuvi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Crazy%20Kuvi) $1.01 $0.06 0.06x 2026-11-06 11:28 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [пепе ватафа](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%BF%D0%B5%D0%BF%D0%B5%20%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0%D1%84%D0%B0) $1.01 $0.06 0.06x 2026-11-06 11:26 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mint-fan-battle-scarred) [Volkodav](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Volkodav) $1.01 $0.16 0.16x 2026-11-06 11:24 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [Dima1215](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Dima1215) $1.01 $0.06 0.06x 2026-11-06 11:23 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [ArturMare](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/ArturMare) $1.01 $0.06 0.06x 2026-11-06 11:20 UTC

[MP9 | Buff Blue (Factory New) weapon · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-buff-blue-factory-new) [Adams](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Adams) $1.01 $0.06 0.06x 2026-11-06 11:11 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $1.01 | 62.64% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $1.01 | 62.68% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.0% legendary 0.0% covert 0.0% gold 0.0% classified 0.0% #eb4b4b 0.0% red 0.0% #d32ee6 0.0% violet 0.1% pink 9.2% Mythical 16.4% #4b69ff 1.9% blue 25.9% Uncommon 8.8% #5e98d9 3.8% Common 33.9%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 62.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $62.64 on average: an expected loss of $37.36 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt