---
title: "Daily 9 case on CSGORUN: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Daily 9 ($24.96) on CSGORUN, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 80.53% from 28 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily9
rendered: 2026-11-11T17:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) / [Daily 9](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily9)

# [CSGORUN](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgorun) · Daily 9

A case on CSGORUN (daily), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily9?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily9?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily9) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily9?window=all)

Price · $24.96

Advertised RTP · 80.53% · EV $20.10 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 16.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 74.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily9?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily9?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily9) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgorun/daily9?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 142,857 | $5,190 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83,333 | $2,823 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-field-tested) | 1 in 111,111 | $2,195 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 66,667 | $1,510 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 43,478 | $874 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $775 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 37,037 | $742 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 27,778 | $616 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,882 | $433 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 897 | $176 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 142 | $151 | 5.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $96.70 | 7.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $93.03 | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · #ffd700](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 424 | $71.71 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $64.79 | 12.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $59.13 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-minimal-wear) | 1 in 211 | $56.65 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Field-Tested) gloves · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $51.15 | 12.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Cmdr. Frank 'Wet Sox' Baroud \| SEAL Frogman agent · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/cmdr-frank-wet-sox-baroud-seal-frogman) | 1 in 22 | $46.23 | 10.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-temukau-field-tested) | 1 in 24 | $33.96 | 6.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-midnight-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 18 | $14.97 | 4.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $11.53 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Watchdog (Factory New) weapon · 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-watchdog-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $9.86 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $8.54 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $7.11 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) | 10.8% | $3.43 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) | 11.3% | $1.44 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 14.0% | $1.17 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgorun:v1/box/daily9/show`, 6 Nov, 11:37 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgorun&case=daily9)

[M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-battle-scarred) [kezhsmirnov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kezhsmirnov) $24.96 $3.43 0.14x 2026-11-06 05:17 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) [Xorvell 3.12](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xorvell%203.12) $24.96 $1.17 0.05x 2026-11-05 22:12 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [твоя мама](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%8F%20%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B0) $24.96 $11.53 0.46x 2026-11-05 20:17 UTC

[M4A4 | Choppa (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-choppa-factory-new) [Никита Иванов](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D0%9D%D0%B8%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%82%D0%B0%20%D0%98%D0%B2%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2) $24.96 $1.44 0.06x 2026-11-05 13:08 UTC

[AWP | POP AWP (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-well-worn) [Xorvell 3.12](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/Xorvell%203.12) $24.96 $7.11 0.28x 2026-11-04 20:23 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) [твоя мама](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/%D1%82%D0%B2%D0%BE%D1%8F%20%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BC%D0%B0) $24.96 $1.17 0.05x 2026-11-04 20:12 UTC

[USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) [kezhsmirnov](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgorun/kezhsmirnov) $24.96 $1.17 0.05x 2026-11-04 17:19 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $24.96 | 80.53% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 1 9.1% contraband 0.0% epic 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% gold 0.0% covert 7.9% covert knife 0.7% #ffd700 0.2% red 11.0% rare 8.0% Immortal 4.7% Mythical 5.6% pink 7.1% restricted 9.3% classified 10.8% blue 11.3% uncommon 14.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 80.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $80.53 on average: an expected loss of $19.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt